In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 23.10% of it (0.462% per buy, 0.462% per sell; creator_bps 3300, platform_bps 3000).
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (924 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -112.53 NEAR · insiders' net result: +24.27 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 51% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-15 22:28:45 UTC · block 220138600 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-11 12:22 UTC
Price now
1.01x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.23x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
60 of 194 · 30.9%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
5
32
59
72
186
Buyers spent
88.72 NEAR
490.93 NEAR
1,325.69 NEAR
1,940.89 NEAR
5,771.73 NEAR
Buyers net result
+5.59 NEAR
+197.54 NEAR
+497.56 NEAR
+316.31 NEAR
-112.53 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Insiders' net result
+3.51 NEAR
+22.10 NEAR
+40.14 NEAR
+33.33 NEAR
+24.27 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.18x
2.16x
3.12x
3.12x
4.38x
Holders
5
27
38
41
60
Top 10 holders' share
100%
83.2%
74.4%
77.8%
65.3%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
1.9% · holds
1.9% · holds
1.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
4.5% · 2 of 2 hold
6.0% · 5 of 5 hold
1.6% · 3 of 5 hold
Other early buyers
3.0% · 3 of 3 hold
23.9% · 24 of 25 hold
13.8% · 17 of 25 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
7.5% · 5 wallets
29.9% · 30 wallets
15.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
90.7%
68.2%
82.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
83.2%
77.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
83.2% · 0 merged
77.8% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.