BALL nearly.trade

ball.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 6.00% of it (0.060% per buy, 0.060% per sell; creator_bps 1000, platform_bps 4000).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 28 % (752 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 2.12 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: nearball.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-20 15:22:30 UTC, 29.1 min after the launch: C7hXbMjmsGoay…a3puH.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -2.12 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.38 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-20 14:53:26 UTC · block 220817280 · history: launch only
TransactionFX7rapGjkRk7n…ZBGrN
Creatornearball.near explorer
Poolball.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy15.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 10.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:42 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-21 03:50 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-21 03:50 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.86x the peak
Outside buyers in profit2 of 11 · 18.2%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 10 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch——29.1 min29.1 min29.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1111111111
Buyers spent53.10 NEAR53.10 NEAR53.10 NEAR53.10 NEAR53.10 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.68 NEAR-1.81 NEAR-1.97 NEAR-2.12 NEAR-2.20 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+1.17 NEAR+0.08 NEAR-0.38 NEAR-0.38 NEAR-0.38 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.13x1.13x1.13x1.13x1.13x
Holders105310
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.4% · holds 1.4% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 4.1% · 8 of 10 hold 0.8% · 4 of 10 hold 0.5% · 1 of 10 hold
Other early buyers 0.2% · 1 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)4.3% · 11 wallets0.8% · 11 wallets0.5% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)94.3%97.8%99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 7.0 min after buying · transaction +0.02 NEAR
2 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 15.1 min after buying · transaction -0.03 NEAR
3 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 5 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 3.3 min after buying · transaction +0.11 NEAR
4 ro52.near 6 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 11.1 min after buying · transaction -0.15 NEAR
5 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 12 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold -0.34 NEAR
6 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 24 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 31.9 min after buying · transaction -0.12 NEAR
7 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 25 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction -1.13 NEAR
8 softdove3960.near 103 s · transaction 3.00 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction -0.10 NEAR
9 quick-rider-483….near 104 s · transaction 1.60 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction -0.16 NEAR
10 alola.near 113 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction -0.14 NEAR
11 poliag.near 3.0 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction -0.10 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearball.near

None known.