Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.
Risk score: High 65 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0
In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
- +30 108 of the 206 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (1 by the creator and 107 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 52%.
- +20 Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (3.200% per buy, 3.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).Evidence: launch baskt-4.nearlytrade.near
- +10 Received 7.41 NEAR 2 min before the launch from 82030f49b33bc464094eaf9811ed121fc74fa549c51073d1183aa7f0c2c5f4f9, whose earlier launch stocks-4.nearlytrade.near (made by stocksonnear.near, linked to him) ended as a rug; 3 such funders in all.
- +5 The name 'baskt' was already used 33.7 h earlier by another creator (baskt.nearlytrade.near).Evidence: launch baskt.nearlytrade.near
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.