believe.v2-launchpad.ju….near justhoot v2

believe.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Risk score: Elevated 35 / 100 issued 2026-11-06 16:48 UTC · config v0-default-1 · rules v0.1

  • +25
    Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): it received 68.00 NEAR 8 min before the launch (largest transfer from leyzeexyz.near); the dev buy of 56.28 NEAR is 83% of that funding.
  • +10
    The creator made 1 other launches in the 24 h before this one (all launchpads, all sources).

v0 — weights are provisional; calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 37 % (411 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 7.92 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: itashidev.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-11-06 16:59:31 UTC, 11.4 min after the launch: 5XquyKDjk7TYT…KSzPq.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -7.92 NEAR · insiders' net result: +53.88 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-11-06 16:48:06 UTC · block 223342694 · live
TransactionDVyh81xg84TFF…KWQV4
Creatoritashidev.near explorer
Poolbelieve.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy56.28 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 17:54 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-06 17:54 UTC
Price now0.90x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.76x the peak
Outside buyers in profit2 of 5 · 40%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch—11.4 min11.4 min11.4 min11.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)55555
Buyers spent120.00 NEAR120.00 NEAR120.00 NEAR120.00 NEAR120.00 NEAR
Buyers net result+4.89 NEAR-7.92 NEAR-7.92 NEAR-7.92 NEAR-7.95 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+69.67 NEAR+53.88 NEAR+53.88 NEAR+53.88 NEAR+53.88 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.18x1.18x1.18x1.18x1.18x
Holders51110
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 4.5% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 7% · 4 of 5 hold 0.1% · 1 of 5 hold 0.1% · 1 of 5 hold
Other early buyers — — —
All early buyers (the six rows above)7% · 5 wallets0.1% · 5 wallets0.1% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)88.5%99.9%99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 8 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 11.3 min after buying · transaction -0.75 NEAR
2 pussy.sendler-b.near bot_wallet 8 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction +0.17 NEAR
3 cockis.near 10 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR not sold -0.13 NEAR
4 phbo.near 11 s · transaction 40.00 NEAR 10.2 min after buying · transaction +0.95 NEAR
5 56c9a6ef438223b….near 16 s · transaction 72.00 NEAR 10.6 min after buying · transaction -8.16 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of itashidev.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-11-05 22:49 UTC justhoot v2 nearseazon.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 25 Low rug live