BINDERY nearly.trade

bindery-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch bindery-3.nearlyt….near
+5
The name 'bindery' was already used 4 min earlier by another creator (bindery-2.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch bindery-2.nearlyt….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2356 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 12.46 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: binderycell.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-03 17:31:41 UTC, 6.6 min after the launch: 8o2XBimBk2783…SE5Kg.
Outside buyers' net result: -12.46 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.69 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-03 17:25:07 UTC · block 218380294 · history: launch only
Transaction	HxkQqw4dbpjir…wXH4G
Creator	binderycell.near explorer
Pool	bindery-3.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	23.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-03 18:32 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	6.6 min	6.6 min	6.6 min	6.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	18	18	18	18
Buyers spent	345.00 NEAR	345.00 NEAR	345.00 NEAR	345.00 NEAR	345.00 NEAR
Buyers net result	+41.78 NEAR	-12.45 NEAR	-12.45 NEAR	-12.46 NEAR	-12.46 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+11.45 NEAR	+0.69 NEAR	+0.69 NEAR	+0.69 NEAR	+0.69 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.66x	1.66x	1.66x	1.66x	1.66x
Holders	15	1	1	4	3
Top 10 holders' share	88.2%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.2% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	16.4% · 14 of 17 hold	0.1% · 1 of 17 hold	0% · 0 of 17 hold
Other early buyers	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	16.4% · 18 wallets	0.1% · 18 wallets	0% · 18 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	81.4%	99.9%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	88.2%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 18 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	+2.52 NEAR	pair bought within 12.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.0 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.3 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 334 of 709 launches (not put in a group)
2	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	21 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	9.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 35.2 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.1 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
3	flatbat5958.near	27 s · transaction	16.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+8.93 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 3.2 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.5 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
4	lowfrog6012.near	30 s · transaction	16.00 NEAR	3.7 min after buying · transaction	+7.34 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 3.2 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.3 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.9 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
5	dryoil1584.near	33 s · transaction	16.00 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	+0.48 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 2.9 s of lowfrog6012.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of flatbat5958.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.3 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
6	stillurial1675.near	45 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.14 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.1 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.3 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
7	longquiche338.near	45 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.1 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.3 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	47 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-9.79 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 9.3 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.0 s of f17d0815e8d5bf4…b21f6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
9	sickuser1627.near	52 s · transaction	19.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 18.3 s of roughzone8076.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.5 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.1 s of longquiche338.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
10	finequiche1009.near	52 s · transaction	19.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.42 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 22.3 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.5 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.5 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
11	realsite8942.near	52 s · transaction	19.00 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.71 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 17.8 s of roughzone8076.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of sickuser1627.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of finequiche1009.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
12	alola.near	57 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.34 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 9.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.5 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
13	roughzone8076.near	70 s · transaction	17.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	-2.39 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 18 of those launches pair bought within 13.8 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.3 s of sickuser1627.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.4 s of longquiche338.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
14	lambadaa.near	70 s · transaction	47.00 NEAR	74 s after buying · transaction	-8.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 13.8 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
15	wetpuma8279.near	73 s · transaction	17.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	-2.09 NEAR	pair bought within 40.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.9 s of roughzone8076.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.7 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
16	fd45b6de05c0a80…1ff4e	77 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	4.1 min after buying · transaction	-2.94 NEAR	pair bought within 20.5 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	579b7294974b54d…30203	2.1 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.54 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 53.6 s of lambadaa.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	equalharbor5773.near	3.7 min · transaction	49.50 NEAR	77 s after buying · transaction	-4.18 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of binderycell.near

None known.