BLINDKEY nearly.trade

blindkey.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch blindkey.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 28 % (747 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 25.29 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: blindkey43200.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-20 13:40:21 UTC, 10.4 min after the launch: 4SfGKLoiyzgBG…nQ4zV.
Outside buyers' net result: -25.29 NEAR · insiders' net result: +7.13 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-20 13:30:00 UTC · block 220808976 · history: launch only
Transaction	5WPxgDNu2rdhq…RvFUC
Creator	blindkey43200.near explorer
Pool	blindkey.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	23.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-21 12:50 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-21 12:50 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.65x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	11 of 30 · 36.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.7% · 2 of 23 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	10.4 min	10.4 min	10.4 min	10.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	25	30	30	30	30
Buyers spent	369.17 NEAR	441.11 NEAR	441.11 NEAR	451.01 NEAR	451.01 NEAR
Buyers net result	+33.72 NEAR	-15.01 NEAR	-25.53 NEAR	-25.29 NEAR	-26.22 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+10.08 NEAR	+7.13 NEAR	+7.13 NEAR	+7.13 NEAR	+7.13 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.52x	1.52x	1.52x	1.52x	1.52x
Holders	19	9	5	3	2
Top 10 holders' share	90.1%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.1% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	13.7% · 14 of 21 hold	8.2% · 8 of 23 hold	0.7% · 2 of 23 hold
Other early buyers	2.5% · 4 of 4 hold	0.8% · 2 of 7 hold	1.7% · 2 of 7 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	16.2% · 25 wallets	8.9% · 30 wallets	2.3% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	81.7%	91.1%	97.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	90.1%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	94.3% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ro52.near	3 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	21.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.70 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.85 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	23.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	6 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	117 s after buying · transaction	+0.43 NEAR	pair bought within 2.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	19 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	26.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 16.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.8 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
6	axxe.near	22 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+5.32 NEAR	pair bought within 1.9 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.8 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	24 s · transaction	75.00 NEAR	26.2 min after buying · transaction	-15.54 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 11.9 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
8	lowfrog6012.near	28 s · transaction	17.00 NEAR	84 s after buying · transaction	+2.99 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.5 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
9	flatbat5958.near	28 s · transaction	17.00 NEAR	92 s after buying · transaction	+1.83 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.5 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
10	finequiche1009.near	28 s · transaction	17.00 NEAR	92 s after buying · transaction	+0.73 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.5 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	36 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.23 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 32.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 30.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 15 more pairs · all pairs
12	dryoil1584.near	40 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	63 s after buying · transaction	+1.95 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 1.6 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.2 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
13	stillurial1675.near	41 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	49 s after buying · transaction	+1.35 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.8 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
14	longquiche338.near	41 s · transaction	18.00 NEAR	42 s after buying · transaction	+0.76 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.8 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
15	decep.near	44 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	27.8 min after buying · transaction	-5.59 NEAR	pair bought within 40.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.7 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
16	h2onear.near	53 s · transaction	4.00 NEAR	7.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.24 NEAR	pair bought within 16.6 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
17	softdove3960.near	63 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	4.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 26.9 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	66 s · transaction	70.72 NEAR	30 s after buying · transaction	-3.12 NEAR	pair bought within 30.3 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
19	km686.tg	90 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	6.7 min after buying · transaction	-1.15 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 54.2 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.5 s of warmcatt.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.6 s of h2onear.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
20	warmcatt.near	115 s · transaction	1.20 NEAR	8.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 24.5 s of km686.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.7 s of hungcoiiii1.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of blindkey43200.near

None known.