In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+30
15 of the 29 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 15 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 50%.
Received 35.98 NEAR 13.8 h before the launch from snowy_machine.user.intear.near, whose earlier launch scroge.nearlytrade.near (made by 71383bfa5db01f7828740ddce035aab8a3748befa036621e09ec6723fc8e59f7, linked to him) ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-01 10:57:48 UTC, 14.6 min after the launch: 5PRMhCVqDEAx1…dGqu9.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.86 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.21 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-01 10:43:13 UTC · block 218049121 · history: launch only
buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 95.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 14:08 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-01 14:08 UTC
Price now
0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.94x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 4 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 2 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
100%
100%
102.0%
102.0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
14.6 min
14.6 min
14.6 min
14.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
3
4
4
4
4
Buyers spent
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
15.50 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.22 NEAR
-0.84 NEAR
-0.86 NEAR
-0.86 NEAR
-0.93 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
100%
100%
102.0%
102.0%
Insiders' net result
+0.02 NEAR
-0.32 NEAR
-0.32 NEAR
-0.21 NEAR
-0.21 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.02x
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
Holders
4
2
2
4
3
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.6% · holds
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
0.9% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.5% · 2 of 2 hold
0.3% · 1 of 2 hold
0.3% · 1 of 2 hold
Other early buyers
—
<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
1.4% · 3 wallets
0.3% · 4 wallets
0.3% · 4 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
98%
99.7%
99.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 4 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.