BOBROSS nearly.trade

bobross.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch bobross.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 23.61 NEAR 100.0 h before the launch from wildyam5674.near, whose earlier launch jolly.nearlytrade.near (made by diamondcash.near, linked to him) ended as a rug; 2 such funders in all.
Evidence: transaction NrERD5muvGp3ErFMt…E8D13, launch jolly.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2588 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 41.79 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: diamondcash.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-06 17:19:53 UTC, 4.7 min after the launch: 3MCFeUFoqxBvY…nw1XY.
Outside buyers' net result: -41.79 NEAR · insiders' net result: +11.67 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-06 17:15:11 UTC · block 218820262 · history: launch only
Transaction	5Cn9PPP52ZZxv…F9YKx
Creator	diamondcash.near explorer
Pool	bobross.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-16 23:06 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-16 23:06 UTC
Price now	0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.33x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	16 of 31 · 51.6%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 16 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	4.7 min	4.7 min	4.7 min	4.7 min	4.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	28	29	31	31	31
Buyers spent	831.10 NEAR	959.84 NEAR	975.84 NEAR	975.84 NEAR	975.84 NEAR
Buyers net result	+48.85 NEAR	-1.85 NEAR	-41.77 NEAR	-41.79 NEAR	-41.87 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+11.67 NEAR	+11.67 NEAR	+11.67 NEAR	+11.67 NEAR	+11.67 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.90x	2.90x	2.90x	2.90x	2.90x
Holders	15	12	4	7	6
Top 10 holders' share	98.6%	100.0%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	3.7% · 6 of 16 hold	3.7% · 7 of 16 hold	0.5% · 3 of 16 hold
Other early buyers	17.3% · 9 of 12 hold	12.1% · 5 of 13 hold	<0.01% · 1 of 14 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	20.9% · 28 wallets	15.8% · 29 wallets	0.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	79.1%	84.2%	99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	98.6%	100.0%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	98.6% · 1 merged	100.0% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	10 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.23 NEAR	pair bought within 19.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.2 s of alola.near · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
2	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	10 s · transaction	25.54 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+14.88 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 13.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
3	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	22 s · transaction	17.68 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+6.87 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
4	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	22 s · transaction	17.68 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+6.31 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
5	94feda709c301ed…63090	22 s · transaction	17.68 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.72 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
6	bf9c9b725df0744…ca524	22 s · transaction	17.68 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.72 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 39 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
7	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	23 s · transaction	17.68 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+5.48 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
8	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	23 s · transaction	17.68 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.56 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
9	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	28 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+24.29 NEAR	pair bought within 3.5 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
10	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	29 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.96 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 2.9 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.3 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.0 s of 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	32 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.68 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 2.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.2 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.9 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
12	31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3	44 s · transaction	2.97 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+3.83 NEAR	pair bought within 15.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.0 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.5 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
13	lowpant8440.near	49 s · transaction	19.00 NEAR	2.7 min after buying · transaction	+15.30 NEAR	pair bought within 20.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
14	zynth.near	62 s · transaction	90.00 NEAR	26.4 min after buying · transaction	-22.78 NEAR	none found
15	truezest4223.near	66 s · transaction	80.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+4.35 NEAR	pair bought within 34.4 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	badriansyahirwa….near	70 s · transaction	0.99 NEAR	19.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.18 NEAR	pair bought within 37.9 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 40.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.4 s of 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
17	baddove5186.near	76 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+13.09 NEAR	pair bought within 44.5 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.5 s of 31a58fd2b1626ac…76fa3 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
18	toamillion.near	97 s · transaction	75.00 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+4.59 NEAR	none found
19	irene.user.intear.near	98 s · transaction	29.75 NEAR	20.6 min after buying · transaction	-10.41 NEAR	none found
20	scorp56.near	119 s · transaction	100.00 NEAR	103 s after buying · transaction	-4.88 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of diamondcash.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-02 09:00 UTC	nearly.trade	jolly.nearlytrade.near	20 Low retro	rug	history: launch only