BON nearly.trade

bon-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch bon-2.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'bon' was already used 130.1 h earlier by another creator (bon.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch bon.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (capone100x.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1184 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 17 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 513.3% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: bondev.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 21:24:40 UTC, 222.4 min after the launch: 6kWHKm9h1A2XD…yB4YG.
Outside buyers' net result: -153.74 NEAR · insiders' net result: +29.80 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 17% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 17:42:13 UTC · block 217808368 · history: launch only
Transaction	9f1sYvY91NoZR…RZwBS
Creator	bondev.near explorer
Pool	bon-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	43.37 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-02 14:06 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-02 14:06 UTC
Price now	0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.17x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	32 of 77 · 41.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 21 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	0%	513.3%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	222.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	24	45	56	67	77
Buyers spent	492.10 NEAR	1,351.71 NEAR	2,211.33 NEAR	3,173.58 NEAR	3,669.97 NEAR
Buyers net result	+193.28 NEAR	+873.72 NEAR	+556.34 NEAR	+1,118.80 NEAR	-153.74 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	0%	513.3%
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	+12.51 NEAR	+29.80 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.06x	3.76x	3.76x	5.44x	5.44x
Holders	26	41	41	43	9
Top 10 holders' share	80.0%	67.4%	76.2%	69.9%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	1.1% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	5.0% · 1 of 1 hold	6.6% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	15.7% · 18 of 18 hold	10.1% · 16 of 21 hold	2.1% · 6 of 21 hold
Other early buyers	13.9% · 6 of 6 hold	19.1% · 7 of 8 hold	18.0% · 6 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	29.6% · 24 wallets	34.2% · 30 wallets	26.7% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	70.4%	65.8%	72.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	80.0%	67.4%	69.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	96.4% · 1 merged	75.6% · 2 merged	69.9% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	34 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	+3.75 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 43.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.5 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
2	supremegay.near	50 s · transaction	84.52 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	+34.94 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 27.7 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
3	1122233413123.near	59 s · transaction	220.00 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	+49.93 NEAR	pair bought within 8.6 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.4 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.5 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4	6cac4e44915931a…b5879	67 s · transaction	40.49 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+14.91 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
5	7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8	67 s · transaction	40.49 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+15.56 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
6	03712631d52c0ad…1b110	67 s · transaction	40.49 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	+12.99 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
7	3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735	67 s · transaction	40.49 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+12.55 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 6cac4e44915931a…b5879 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
8	b532e63ee0e12ec…78cd1	67 s · transaction	40.49 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	+22.84 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 38 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 35 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
9	panjipetualang.near	70 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.85 NEAR	pair bought within 17.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.4 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.7 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	77 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	not sold	+1.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 0.7 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.8 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	78 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.25 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 15.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 32 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
12	darknes.near	80 s · transaction	60.00 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	+10.30 NEAR	pair bought within 7.1 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.4 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
13	lambadaa.near	84 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	17.7 min after buying · transaction	+3.45 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 6.4 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
14	579b7294974b54d…30203	87 s · transaction	12.00 NEAR	15.8 min after buying · transaction	+23.61 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 9.3 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.5 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
15	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	94 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	not sold	+1.12 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 15.5 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.2 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.9 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 12 more pairs · all pairs
16	7july.near	96 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	not sold	+4.45 NEAR	pair bought within 8.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.5 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
17	cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486	100 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	+4.65 NEAR	pair bought within 21.8 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.4 s of lambadaa.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
18	legalibis3882.near	115 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	not sold	+79.67 NEAR	none found
19	firstnft_mint.near	2.2 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.21 NEAR	none found
20	313f6cb8cea496c…cdb9c	2.2 min · transaction	0.10 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.0033 NEAR	pair bought within 35.4 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of bondev.near

None known.