Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (2.400% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).
The largest funder's (423df0a6640e9467769c55a573f15b9ee999dc8970048959c72890abf5cc3a8e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 47 % (575 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
Rug — fast (by T+60 min).
Outside buyers lost 3.41 NEAR.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-03 21:56:50 UTC, 54.5 min after the launch: CaJodY3SEv6xa…UhK2M.
Outside buyers' net result: -3.41 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.02 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
buy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 04:33 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-06 04:33 UTC
Price now
1.03x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.85x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 15 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 6 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
54.5 min
54.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
6
7
9
9
14
Buyers spent
14.40 NEAR
15.40 NEAR
66.40 NEAR
66.40 NEAR
69.92 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.80 NEAR
-0.70 NEAR
-0.98 NEAR
-3.41 NEAR
-8.82 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
Insiders' net result
-0.08 NEAR
+0.72 NEAR
+3.61 NEAR
+0.02 NEAR
+0.02 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.10x
1.10x
1.20x
1.20x
1.20x
Holders
3
3
4
3
7
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
3.8% · holds
3.8% · holds
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.9% · 2 of 6 hold
0.8% · 1 of 6 hold
0.8% · 1 of 6 hold
Other early buyers
—
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
4.1% · 2 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0.9% · 6 wallets
0.9% · 7 wallets
5.0% · 9 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
95.3%
95.3%
95.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 9 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.