BUBBLE nearly.trade

bubble.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 30.00% of it (0.600% per buy, 0.600% per sell; creator_bps 5000, platform_bps 4000).
    Evidence: launch bubble.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 29 % (749 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 13.81 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: nearbubble.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-21 14:59:31 UTC, 13.4 min after the launch: Bmk3XicaapZTo…aXZa5.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -13.81 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.82 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-21 14:46:08 UTC · block 220959549 · history: launch only
Transaction2mHzTuVePYTny…VWDm9
Creatornearbubble.near explorer
Poolbubble.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy30.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-22 01:05 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch—13.4 min13.4 min13.4 min13.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1616161616
Buyers spent226.62 NEAR227.62 NEAR227.62 NEAR227.62 NEAR227.62 NEAR
Buyers net result+17.35 NEAR-12.94 NEAR-13.52 NEAR-13.81 NEAR-16.40 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+10.18 NEAR+0.82 NEAR+0.82 NEAR+0.82 NEAR+0.82 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.45x1.45x1.45x1.45x1.45x
Holders123320
Top 10 holders' share99.0%100%100%100%—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.8% · holds 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 12.9% · 11 of 15 hold 4.6% · 4 of 15 hold 4.5% · 3 of 15 hold
Other early buyers 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)12.9% · 16 wallets4.6% · 16 wallets4.5% · 16 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)84.3%95.4%95.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)99.0%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 16 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 wrapz-z.near independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 42 s after buying · transaction +0.25 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.0 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 3 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 13.4 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.0 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 13.4 min after buying · transaction -0.31 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
4 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 4 s · transaction 19.22 NEAR not sold -1.10 NEAR
pair bought within 1.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
5 ro52.near 6 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 19 s after buying · transaction +0.07 NEAR
pair bought within 3.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
6 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 16 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 13.5 min after buying · transaction -0.12 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 13.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 13.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.5 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 25 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 6.0 min after buying · transaction +3.82 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 14.3 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8 js1112s.near 25 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR 6.9 min after buying · transaction -0.90 NEAR
pair bought within 22.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.3 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 36 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold -3.41 NEAR
pair bought within 3.6 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10 alola.near 40 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.3 min after buying · transaction -0.20 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 36.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11 phbo.near 45 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction +0.28 NEAR
pair bought within 42.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e 89 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 5.6 min after buying · transaction -4.03 NEAR
pair bought within 48.9 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.3 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 56c9a6ef438223b….near 104 s · transaction 24.00 NEAR 2.6 min after buying · transaction +0.46 NEAR
pair bought within 58.5 s of phbo.near · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 56.6 s of axxe.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.3 s of 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14 proud-walrus-52….near 2.5 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction -1.00 NEAR
pair bought within 47.0 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15 axxe.near 2.7 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold -6.36 NEAR
pair bought within 56.6 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f 3.4 min · transaction 9.90 NEAR 93 s after buying · transaction -1.20 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearbubble.near

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-10-22 03:47 UTC justhoot v2 bubble.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near 35 Elevated retro no rug history: launch only