CAT nearly.trade

cat-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 65 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 1 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 47%.
Evidence: launch god.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 30.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch cat-3.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 10.96 NEAR 9 min before the launch from godsutnauq.near, whose earlier launch god.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 7nKY5ERvwHVN88TbG…em2MH, launch god.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'cat' was already used 150.1 h earlier by another creator (cat-2.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch cat-2.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2675 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 3.27 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 103.3% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: catquantum.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-08 06:12:09 UTC, 14.4 min after the launch: FkAt11Tt4iWPG…RTc96.
Outside buyers' net result: -3.27 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.27 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-08 05:57:43 UTC · block 219043964 · history: launch only
Transaction	fKKKrZKYpsUgC…9MTaA
Creator	catquantum.near explorer
Pool	cat-3.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	8.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 30.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-12 19:07 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-12 19:07 UTC
Price now	0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.85x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	2 of 10 · 20%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 8 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	103.3%	103.3%	103.3%	105.3%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	14.4 min	14.4 min	14.4 min	14.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	9	9	10	10	10
Buyers spent	72.51 NEAR	72.51 NEAR	92.51 NEAR	92.51 NEAR	92.51 NEAR
Buyers net result	-1.99 NEAR	-2.33 NEAR	-2.87 NEAR	-3.27 NEAR	-3.31 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	103.3%	103.3%	103.3%	105.3%
Insiders' net result	+0.22 NEAR	+0.27 NEAR	+0.27 NEAR	+0.27 NEAR	+0.42 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.12x	1.12x	1.12x	1.12x	1.12x
Holders	3	5	5	4	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.8% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.1% · 1 of 8 hold	0.1% · 1 of 8 hold	0% · 0 of 8 hold
Other early buyers	1.9% · 1 of 1 hold	1.9% · 1 of 1 hold	1.9% · 1 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	1.9% · 9 wallets	1.9% · 9 wallets	1.9% · 10 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.3%	98.1%	98.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 10 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	7e4213671de0c86…672c0	9 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.48 NEAR	none found
2	82804aad087fc31…e82f3	2.4 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	21 s after buying · transaction	-0.17 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
3	b2a29568eb32627…0dda9	2.4 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	20 s after buying · transaction	+0.22 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	b196fe8d7a4140c…f04ea	2.4 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	21 s after buying · transaction	+0.01 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 35 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 34 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	94feda709c301ed…63090	2.4 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	20 s after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	57b75e37532eb09…faeea	2.4 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	20 s after buying · transaction	-0.37 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 42 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of 94feda709c301ed…63090 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7	99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f	2.5 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	18 s after buying · transaction	-0.55 NEAR	group one of 10 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 41 of those launches pair bought within 2.4 s of 82804aad087fc31…e82f3 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
8	2e6d3355d0e0fa4…ccbb1	2.5 min · transaction	7.36 NEAR	17 s after buying · transaction	-0.47 NEAR	pair bought within 3.4 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.0 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.6 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	2.7 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 16.8 s of b2a29568eb32627…0dda9 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.4 s of 99fde2f219bf2de…57c0f · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.2 s of 57b75e37532eb09…faeea · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
10	kimpet77.near	19.7 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.78 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of catquantum.near

None known.