CCAT nearly.trade

ccat.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 4 % (425 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 27.31 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 1202.1% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: 25dbf2dfb5f16e512ab55…ebfbb (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 17:07:10 UTC, 8.6 min after the launch: 7eJufQEUpsfBn…mNN2w.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -27.31 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.29 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 16:58:32 UTC · block 217659258 · history: launch only
Transactionrt5JcyvqhqdGk…gnSmk
Creator25dbf2dfb5f16e512ab552a339698d56b002c783862753d03fcf3612007ebfbb explorer
Poolccat.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.20 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 02:41 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100%100%1202.1%1202.1%
Dev's first sell after launch—8.6 min8.6 min8.6 min8.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1528282828
Buyers spent221.70 NEAR485.09 NEAR485.09 NEAR485.09 NEAR485.09 NEAR
Buyers net result+14.48 NEAR+48.72 NEAR-26.46 NEAR-27.31 NEAR-27.69 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100%100%1202.1%1202.1%
Insiders' net result+0.06 NEAR+0.09 NEAR+0.09 NEAR+2.29 NEAR+2.29 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.45x1.76x1.76x1.76x1.76x
Holders1520755
Top 10 holders' share98.5%91.5%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 11.4% · 11 of 13 hold 8.9% · 10 of 18 hold 0.1% · 1 of 18 hold
Other early buyers 1.1% · 2 of 2 hold 11.0% · 8 of 10 hold 2.6% · 4 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)12.5% · 15 wallets19.9% · 28 wallets2.7% · 28 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)87.5%80.1%97.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)98.5%91.5%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged95.1% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 0dcab0ca2c0d3dd…cb7ed 32 s · transaction 0.20 NEAR 4.8 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR none found
2 badriansyahirwa….near 67 s · transaction 0.30 NEAR 36.6 min after buying · transaction -0.0012 NEAR
pair bought within 47.1 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 59.8 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 d0tz.near 84 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 17.6 min after buying · transaction +8.65 NEAR
pair bought within 30.7 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 7ce0a3e28d6a9e6…f6633 106 s · transaction 59.70 NEAR 2.9 min after buying · transaction +9.17 NEAR
pair bought within 8.4 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.1 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.9 s of louduser4868.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 alola.near 115 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR not sold -0.28 NEAR
pair bought within 47.1 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 30.7 s of d0tz.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.5 s of louduser4868.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6 ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be 2.1 min · transaction 25.00 NEAR 10.9 min after buying · transaction +5.87 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 59.7 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 12.7 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.1 s of 7ce0a3e28d6a9e6…f6633 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7 5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961 2.5 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 12.3 min after buying · transaction +1.74 NEAR
pair bought within 34.8 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 37.6 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8 louduser4868.near 2.6 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 20.4 min after buying · transaction -2.20 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches
pair bought within 6.4 s of meteorrrr.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.4 s of lorenzo18.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 43.5 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9 lorenzo18.near 2.7 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 19.4 min after buying · transaction -1.42 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 3.4 s of louduser4868.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.1 s of meteorrrr.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 46.9 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10 meteorrrr.near 2.8 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 11.9 min after buying · transaction +0.68 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 6.4 s of louduser4868.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.1 s of lorenzo18.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 44.0 s of office57.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
11 aceng03.near 3.1 min · transaction 8.00 NEAR 10.1 min after buying · transaction +0.68 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches
pair bought within 40.3 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 59.7 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 34.8 s of 5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12 a98e726c755db35…a3255 3.3 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 96 s after buying · transaction -0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 11.8 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 40.7 s of louduser4868.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 office57.near 3.5 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 20.9 min after buying · transaction -1.34 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches
pair bought within 44.0 s of meteorrrr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.4 s of louduser4868.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.1 s of lorenzo18.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 iwillwin.user.i….near 3.6 min · transaction 16.00 NEAR 42.4 min after buying · transaction -4.82 NEAR none found
15 d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a 3.8 min · transaction 50.00 NEAR 89 s after buying · transaction +2.40 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches
pair bought within 40.3 s of aceng03.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.5 s of a98e726c755db35…a3255 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16 kampits.near 5.3 min · transaction 8.00 NEAR not sold -3.06 NEAR none found
17 98a587a6d9d71e6…578e1 5.4 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR 13.6 min after buying · transaction +0.07 NEAR none found
18 0xfrex.near 6.4 min · transaction 29.00 NEAR 26 s after buying · transaction +0.27 NEAR none found
19 pajet.near 7.9 min · transaction 40.00 NEAR 14.9 min after buying · transaction -9.65 NEAR none found
20 hatersgonnahate.near 8.6 min · transaction 29.00 NEAR 13.8 min after buying · transaction -7.16 NEAR
pair bought within 17.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 25dbf2dfb5f16e512ab55…ebfbb

None known.