CELADON nearly.trade

celadon.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch celadon.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 40 % (792 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 29.01 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: celadonstub.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-26 13:50:34 UTC, 8.8 min after the launch: GkLaMY1PLFodn…Unx6L.
Outside buyers' net result: -29.01 NEAR · insiders' net result: +3.21 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-26 13:41:45 UTC · block 221696034 · history: launch only
Transaction	F2XX2734Z68nm…Gwj7J
Creator	celadonstub.near explorer
Pool	celadon.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	23.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-26 19:42 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	8.8 min	8.8 min	8.8 min	8.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	26	31	31	31	32
Buyers spent	610.48 NEAR	762.88 NEAR	762.88 NEAR	762.88 NEAR	762.98 NEAR
Buyers net result	+80.69 NEAR	-25.90 NEAR	-26.18 NEAR	-29.01 NEAR	-29.12 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+16.46 NEAR	+3.21 NEAR	+3.21 NEAR	+3.21 NEAR	+3.21 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.05x	2.05x	2.05x	2.05x	2.05x
Holders	21	5	5	4	3
Top 10 holders' share	79.6%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	2.2% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	22.9% · 20 of 26 hold	0.5% · 3 of 26 hold	0.5% · 3 of 26 hold
Other early buyers	—	4.0% · 1 of 4 hold	0% · 0 of 4 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	22.9% · 26 wallets	4.6% · 30 wallets	0.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	75.0%	95.4%	99.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	79.6%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.2% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	7.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.77 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.1 s of alola.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	7.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.36 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.1 s of alola.near · 94 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.6 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
4	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	22.08 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.77 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 93 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
5	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	13 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.61 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches pair bought within 10.5 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.5 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6	flatbat5958.near	26 s · transaction	37.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+11.72 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.7 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
7	finequiche1009.near	26 s · transaction	37.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+15.22 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of lowfrog6012.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.7 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
8	lowfrog6012.near	26 s · transaction	29.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+5.71 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 20 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of flatbat5958.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.7 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	35 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.20 NEAR	pair bought within 31.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 32.1 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 94 launches together · their buy · evidence and 16 more pairs · all pairs
10	stillurial1675.near	36 s · transaction	29.00 NEAR	4.9 min after buying · transaction	+7.20 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
11	dryoil1584.near	36 s · transaction	31.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+2.78 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of longquiche338.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
12	longquiche338.near	37 s · transaction	29.00 NEAR	6.6 min after buying · transaction	+3.34 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of dryoil1584.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of stillurial1675.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.7 s of finequiche1009.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
13	sickuser1627.near	46 s · transaction	24.00 NEAR	4.8 min after buying · transaction	+2.37 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of roughzone8076.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.2 s of longquiche338.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.1 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
14	roughzone8076.near	46 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.54 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 18 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of sickuser1627.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.8 s of longquiche338.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.7 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
15	realsite8942.near	50 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	6.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.54 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 3.4 s of roughzone8076.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.0 s of sickuser1627.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.6 s of pinkzest7538.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 13 more pairs · all pairs
16	roundapp1514.near	56 s · transaction	13.00 NEAR	6.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.53 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of pinkzest7538.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of roughzone8076.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.6 s of sickuser1627.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
17	sparezest902.near	56 s · transaction	13.00 NEAR	6.3 min after buying · transaction	+0.29 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of pinkzest7538.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of roundapp1514.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.0 s of roughzone8076.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
18	pinkzest7538.near	56 s · transaction	13.00 NEAR	6.3 min after buying · transaction	-1.27 NEAR	group one of 13 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 10.0 s of roughzone8076.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.6 s of sickuser1627.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of longquiche338.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 14 more pairs · all pairs
19	0xsantos.near	65 s · transaction	49.80 NEAR	34 s after buying · transaction	+3.02 NEAR	pair bought within 30.4 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	56c9a6ef438223b….near	86 s · transaction	48.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-5.64 NEAR	pair bought within 50.8 s of alola.near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.7 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 36 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.7 s of rekttin.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of celadonstub.near

None known.