CHESSIO nearly.trade

chessio.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch chessio.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 2 % (251 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 31.54 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 110.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: chessio.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 10:42:58 UTC, 2.2 min after the launch: Bg4gqLEghsWpw…NCBEV.
Outside buyers' net result: -31.54 NEAR · insiders' net result: +9.25 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 10:40:46 UTC · block 217621100 · history: launch only
Transaction	SoDYKwBLfWbCo…XtiTE
Creator	chessio.near explorer
Pool	chessio.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	22.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-28 17:20 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-28 17:20 UTC
Price now	0.94x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.57x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	5 of 26 · 19.2%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 15 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	110.0%	110.1%
Dev's first sell after launch	2.2 min	2.2 min	2.2 min	2.2 min	2.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	21	26	26	26	26
Buyers spent	408.15 NEAR	426.82 NEAR	426.82 NEAR	426.82 NEAR	426.82 NEAR
Buyers net result	+57.36 NEAR	-30.93 NEAR	-31.50 NEAR	-31.54 NEAR	-31.64 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	110.0%	110.1%
Insiders' net result	+7.19 NEAR	+7.19 NEAR	+7.19 NEAR	+9.25 NEAR	+9.29 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x	1.64x
Holders	19	8	4	6	5
Top 10 holders' share	93.2%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	17.6% · 13 of 15 hold	0.4% · 2 of 15 hold	0.3% · 1 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	3.6% · 5 of 6 hold	0.7% · 5 of 11 hold	0.0% · 2 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	21.3% · 21 wallets	1.1% · 26 wallets	0.4% · 26 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	78.7%	98.9%	99.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	93.2%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	94.8% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	20 s · transaction	0.70 NEAR	14.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 15.3 s of d0tz.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.1 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.7 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	d0tz.near	35 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	12.0 min after buying · transaction	+2.17 NEAR	pair bought within 15.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51	47 s · transaction	29.85 NEAR	6.1 min after buying · transaction	+9.02 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches pair bought within 27.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of d0tz.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.6 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	ebisidiaidi.near	62 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	85 s after buying · transaction	+1.65 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 23.0 s of snuffdog.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.6 s of 7ce9439e0139c61…2ca51 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5	c6e193ddf442ad2…6857c	71 s · transaction	19.90 NEAR	90 s after buying · transaction	-1.18 NEAR	none found
6	snuffdog.near	85 s · transaction	1.99 NEAR	9.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.21 NEAR	pair bought within 23.0 s of ebisidiaidi.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.8 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	fahmihgg.tg	91 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	7.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 50.6 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	zetks.near	113 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	13.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	none found
9	hardroom2708.near	115 s · transaction	19.98 NEAR	8.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.77 NEAR	none found
10	supremegay.near	2.1 min · transaction	39.80 NEAR	12.8 min after buying · transaction	-11.89 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 23.9 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.3 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.8 s of snuffdog.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	c24f52147375be1…ecc0d	2.4 min · transaction	4.98 NEAR	22.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.58 NEAR	none found
12	aceng03.near	2.4 min · transaction	8.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.30 NEAR	pair bought within 8.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.3 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.8 s of 22eff1598b71a3e…5250a · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
13	22eff1598b71a3e…5250a	2.4 min · transaction	4.98 NEAR	11.4 min after buying · transaction	-1.37 NEAR	pair bought within 0.8 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	e8a162641a55288…58210	2.5 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.35 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 8.6 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.9 s of supremegay.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.3 s of farcastmage.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	4908457af672049…cf796	3.0 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	115 s after buying · transaction	+4.92 NEAR	pair bought within 37.5 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	farcastmage.near	3.4 min · transaction	9.00 NEAR	11.5 min after buying · transaction	-2.34 NEAR	pair bought within 52.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	mamoubdran.tg	3.9 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	9.5 min after buying · transaction	-6.35 NEAR	none found
18	kakashkin.near	4.0 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	3.8 min after buying · transaction	-6.48 NEAR	pair bought within 31.0 s of dxrkclxd-hot.tg · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19	dxrkclxd-hot.tg	4.5 min · transaction	50.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	-6.90 NEAR	pair bought within 31.0 s of kakashkin.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.4 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	barrey.near	4.9 min · transaction	2.98 NEAR	4.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.74 NEAR	pair bought within 18.4 s of dxrkclxd-hot.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.5 s of kakashkin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of chessio.near

None known.