CILLIA nearly.trade

cillia.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 24 % (2580 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 97 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: cosmicillia.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-10-12 13:23:10 UTC, 1399.1 min after the launch: 4sHxL2zg7eY8e…Mw5NY.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.48 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 97% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-11 14:04:05 UTC · block 219533890 · history: launch only
TransactionAYvpvxJBGACPT…5GJ9r
Creatorcosmicillia.near explorer
Poolcillia.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-12 19:08 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-12 19:08 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.93x the peak
Outside buyers in profit1 of 5 · 20%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 3 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)——0%0%100%
Dev's first sell after launch————1399.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)33555
Buyers spent26.00 NEAR26.00 NEAR26.30 NEAR26.30 NEAR26.30 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.18 NEAR-0.18 NEAR-0.21 NEAR-0.21 NEAR-0.48 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)——0%0%100%
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR-0.0030 NEAR-0.0030 NEAR-0.0049 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.03x1.03x1.05x1.05x1.05x
Holders22553
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing <0.01% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 2.3% · 2 of 3 hold 2.3% · 2 of 3 hold 2.3% · 2 of 3 hold
Other early buyers — — <0.01% · 2 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)2.3% · 3 wallets2.3% · 3 wallets2.3% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)97.7%97.7%97.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer 6 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 2.5 min after buying · transaction +0.0073 NEAR
2 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 9 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold +0.06 NEAR
3 7e4213671de0c86…672c0 11 s · transaction 20.00 NEAR not sold -0.26 NEAR
4 6695528202.tg 15.2 min · transaction 0.10 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction -0.0039 NEAR
5 imrohitoma.near 18.6 min · transaction 0.20 NEAR 102 s after buying · transaction -0.0079 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of cosmicillia.near

None known.