In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+25
Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): it received 11.00 NEAR 3 min before the launch (largest transfer from intents.near); the dev buy of 10.00 NEAR is 91% of that funding.
Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (2.400% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 20:30:12 UTC, 66.1 min after the launch: 6Nj4mCyXfuFyt…NmCiw.
Outside buyers' net result: -1.60 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.63 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 82% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-30 19:24:05 UTC · block 217956907 · history: launch only
buy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-09 20:17 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-09 20:17 UTC
Price now
0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.63x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
2 of 19 · 10.5%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 1 of 10 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
104.6%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
66.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
4
9
16
18
19
Buyers spent
25.95 NEAR
204.45 NEAR
278.93 NEAR
289.40 NEAR
290.20 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.63 NEAR
+20.28 NEAR
+13.12 NEAR
+14.83 NEAR
-1.60 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
104.6%
Insiders' net result
+0.10 NEAR
+3.33 NEAR
+3.20 NEAR
+3.32 NEAR
+2.63 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.03x
1.41x
1.53x
1.53x
1.53x
Holders
5
7
9
13
11
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
99.9%
100.0%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.9% · holds
0.9% · holds
1.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0.5% · 3 of 3 hold
0.1% · 2 of 5 hold
0.1% · 2 of 10 hold
Other early buyers
1.8% · 1 of 1 hold
14.0% · 4 of 4 hold
14.9% · 8 of 8 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
2.3% · 4 wallets
14.1% · 9 wallets
14.9% · 18 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
96.7%
85.0%
84.1%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
99.9%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 1 merged
100% · 1 merged
99.9% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 18 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.