CRVAL nearly.trade

crval.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
    Evidence: launch crval.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1119 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 6.87 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: crval.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 16:12:33 UTC, 24.4 min after the launch: 82eANSXy7yQ7y…6hB8y.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -6.87 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.74 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 15:48:10 UTC · block 217796876 · history: launch only
Transaction62SLkGrKuY6kf…BujxL
Creatorcrval.near explorer
Poolcrval.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy22.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-29 16:20 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch——24.4 min24.4 min24.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1213131313
Buyers spent185.00 NEAR185.30 NEAR185.30 NEAR185.30 NEAR185.30 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.56 NEAR-6.86 NEAR-6.87 NEAR-6.87 NEAR-6.87 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+3.21 NEAR+0.09 NEAR-0.74 NEAR-0.74 NEAR-0.74 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.37x1.37x1.37x1.37x1.37x
Holders73344
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.1% · holds 2.1% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 6.7% · 5 of 11 hold 0.0% · 1 of 11 hold 0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold 0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)6.7% · 12 wallets0.0% · 13 wallets0% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)91.2%97.9%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 38 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 9.2 min after buying · transaction -0.05 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 15.5 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.0 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.1 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
2 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 39 s · transaction 1.98 NEAR 8.8 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches
pair bought within 9.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 3.9 s of supremegay.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3 supremegay.near 43 s · transaction 54.56 NEAR 56 s after buying · transaction +7.62 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 17.7 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4 darknes.near 47 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR
pair bought within 0.9 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.8 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5 3347dd8076331ad…52407 48 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 55 s after buying · transaction +0.0076 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 4.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.8 s of supremegay.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6 sessssssssss.near 53 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +0.0089 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 4.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.6 s of supremegay.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
7 00867ad7c43fe5a…cdd9c 55 s · transaction 74.25 NEAR 8.3 min after buying · transaction -10.67 NEAR
pair bought within 1.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.6 s of darknes.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8 syndi95.near 60 s · transaction 19.84 NEAR 28 s after buying · transaction -0.45 NEAR
pair bought within 17.7 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.6 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 7.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9 997a46b511ebd7c…6c0b1 76 s · transaction 9.92 NEAR 11.5 min after buying · transaction -2.81 NEAR
pair bought within 38.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.8 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.7 s of darknes.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
10 c6841cd06bc7472…567d1 78 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 3.0 min after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR none found
11 barrey.near 2.4 min · transaction 4.96 NEAR 74 s after buying · transaction -0.33 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches
pair bought within 43.8 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 3.1 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR 13.4 min after buying · transaction -0.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches
pair bought within 43.8 s of barrey.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
13 0xfrex.near 6.7 min · transaction 0.30 NEAR 35 s after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of crval.near

None known.