DEVIL nearly.trade

devil.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 35.00% of it (0.350% per buy, 0.350% per sell; creator_bps 5000, platform_bps 3000).
    Evidence: launch devil.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (826 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -11.84 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.57 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 77% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-16 13:44:20 UTC · block 220230474 · history: launch only
TransactionAFrMasdN1vSxF…wi8BD
Creatorneardevil666.near explorer
Pooldevil.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy30.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 50.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:43 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-11 06:58 UTC
Price now0.93x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.72x the peak
Outside buyers in profit5 of 19 · 26.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group4.5% · 1 of 12 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)1718181818
Buyers spent164.33 NEAR164.65 NEAR164.65 NEAR164.65 NEAR164.65 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.90 NEAR-10.62 NEAR-11.40 NEAR-11.77 NEAR-11.84 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+4.20 NEAR+1.15 NEAR+0.78 NEAR+0.61 NEAR+0.57 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.29x1.29x1.29x1.29x1.29x
Holders105865
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.8% · holds 2.8% · holds 2.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 8.2% · 8 of 12 hold 5.5% · 4 of 12 hold 5.4% · 3 of 12 hold
Other early buyers 1.7% · 4 of 5 hold 0.4% · 2 of 6 hold 0.4% · 1 of 6 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)10.0% · 17 wallets5.9% · 18 wallets5.8% · 18 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)87.2%91.3%91.4%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 1 merged100% · 1 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 18 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 4 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 10.1 min after buying · transaction +0.03 NEAR
pair bought within 25.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.4 s of rusty_drone.use….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2 rusty_drone.use….near 21 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR not sold -0.08 NEAR
pair bought within 17.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 8.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.5 s of 5330416d2d20245…f7cb5 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 29 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 6.8 min after buying · transaction +0.12 NEAR
pair bought within 25.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.8 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.3 s of kulesh_off.user….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
4 5330416d2d20245…f7cb5 38 s · transaction 4.95 NEAR not sold -0.15 NEAR
pair bought within 8.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 16.5 s of rusty_drone.use….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.9 s of kulesh_off.user….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
5 kulesh_off.user….near 72 s · transaction 19.80 NEAR 8.4 min after buying · transaction -0.16 NEAR
pair bought within 42.4 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 85 s · transaction 9.00 NEAR 2.3 min after buying · transaction +0.90 NEAR
pair bought within 28.8 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.5 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
7 d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 103 s · transaction 7.50 NEAR 5.5 min after buying · transaction -0.11 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches
pair bought within 10.8 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.1 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8 zjroboz3r0.near 104 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 98 s after buying · transaction +1.14 NEAR
pair bought within 18.8 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9 34a5cb274a65051…58f1e 107 s · transaction 9.90 NEAR 114 s after buying · transaction +0.66 NEAR
pair bought within 4.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.6 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10 alola.near 114 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 30.1 min after buying · transaction -0.14 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 10.8 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.8 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11 telerman.near 2.1 min · transaction 60.00 NEAR not sold -10.43 NEAR
pair bought within 10.3 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
12 e8a162641a55288…58210 2.3 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 77 s after buying · transaction -0.56 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches
pair bought within 21.7 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.5 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
13 628a1f98ce15fa2…bde96 2.9 min · transaction 0.80 NEAR 88 s after buying · transaction -0.14 NEAR none found
14 imnotnice.near 3.6 min · transaction 5.00 NEAR not sold -1.06 NEAR none found
15 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 3.8 min · transaction 1.98 NEAR 83 s after buying · transaction -0.23 NEAR none found
16 frigid_polar1.u….near 4.6 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 6.8 min after buying · transaction -0.45 NEAR none found
17 starship9.near 4.9 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 9.8 min after buying · transaction -1.08 NEAR none found
18 diamond_gpu4.us….near 6.3 min · transaction 0.32 NEAR 27.6 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of neardevil666.near

None known.