DIG nearly.trade

dig.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 3.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 300, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch dig.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (e292f41cccbf8500ccc64e9a767333d73b0e7360abba6c9008f280f9b3995982) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 3 % (351 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 71 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 104.5% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: baxt38.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 15:25:19 UTC, 86.6 min after the launch: 5gH31UHjv1dCD…znrR8.
Received tokens from the dev: aggregatedex.near.
Outside buyers' net result: -13.50 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.09 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 71% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 13:58:43 UTC · block 217641109 · history: launch only
Transaction	Byk4o15oo5xBC…WStJX
Creator	baxt38.near explorer
Pool	dig.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	19.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-28 16:07 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	104.5%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	86.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	14	14	14	14
Buyers spent	217.74 NEAR	251.69 NEAR	251.69 NEAR	251.69 NEAR	251.69 NEAR
Buyers net result	+8.64 NEAR	-11.31 NEAR	-11.93 NEAR	-11.59 NEAR	-13.50 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	104.5%
Insiders' net result	+5.07 NEAR	+0.59 NEAR	+0.30 NEAR	+0.66 NEAR	-0.09 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.25x	1.34x	1.34x	1.34x	1.34x
Holders	10	4	5	5	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.8% · holds	1.9% · holds	2.4% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	9.3% · 7 of 10 hold	0.8% · 1 of 13 hold	0% · 0 of 13 hold
Other early buyers	1.6% · 1 of 1 hold	1.6% · 1 of 1 hold	1.6% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	10.9% · 11 wallets	2.4% · 14 wallets	1.6% · 14 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	87.3%	95.7%	96.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 14 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	x0xdead.near	23 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.54 NEAR	pair bought within 39.8 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 242 of 729 launches (not put in a group)
2	supremegay.near	63 s · transaction	49.75 NEAR	119 s after buying · transaction	+4.86 NEAR	pair bought within 48.1 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.8 s of x0xdead.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	syndi95.near	111 s · transaction	19.90 NEAR	94 s after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 48.1 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	xiaochen2.near	2.2 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-2.18 NEAR	none found
5	kimpet77.near	2.6 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.69 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 48.4 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.9 s of 7c514f45d519861…22d81 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.6 s of 5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
6	7c514f45d519861…22d81	2.9 min · transaction	49.75 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	-1.40 NEAR	pair bought within 15.9 s of kimpet77.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	5ae646d27aa6fec…aa961	3.1 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	11.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.65 NEAR	pair bought within 26.6 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
8	teend.near	3.2 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.48 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 10 of those launches pair bought within 13.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.2 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	sessssssssss.near	3.4 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	4.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.49 NEAR	pair bought within 48.4 s of kimpet77.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.1 s of slaynz.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.2 s of teend.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	slaynz.near	4.4 min · transaction	23.34 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-3.23 NEAR	pair bought within 44.2 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 57.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be	4.5 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	2.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.89 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches pair bought within 34.8 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.3 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a	5.1 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	98 s after buying · transaction	-3.03 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 3.5 s of aceng03.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.3 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	aceng03.near	5.1 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	5.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.94 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches pair bought within 3.5 s of d71fbe7fbda8d12…8c90a · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.8 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 44.2 s of slaynz.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14	tuyulz.near	5.4 min · transaction	9.95 NEAR	77 s after buying · transaction	-1.97 NEAR	pair bought within 18.4 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of baxt38.near

None known.