In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 0.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.000% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
The largest funder's (7590023cd92e8fc8e07286cf15ef6815770dbca92df9758494e701babf3f679e) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (1415 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
Rug — fast (by T+60 min).
Outside buyers lost 5.88 NEAR.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-30 13:14:18 UTC, 7.2 min after the launch: 9c23Ev7N2b8FR…HRZSr.
Outside buyers' net result: -5.88 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.71 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-30 13:07:08 UTC · block 217920948 · history: launch only
buy 0.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-01 12:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-01 12:45 UTC
Price now
0.90x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.78x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
1 of 6 · 16.7%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 3 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
7.2 min
7.2 min
7.2 min
7.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
4
6
6
6
6
Buyers spent
76.00 NEAR
86.42 NEAR
86.42 NEAR
86.42 NEAR
86.42 NEAR
Buyers net result
+5.31 NEAR
-3.45 NEAR
-3.80 NEAR
-5.88 NEAR
-8.33 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Insiders' net result
+8.20 NEAR
+4.71 NEAR
+4.71 NEAR
+4.71 NEAR
+4.71 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.14x
1.15x
1.15x
1.15x
1.15x
Holders
6
6
6
5
5
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
4.0% · holds
<0.01% · holds
<0.01% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
6.3% · 3 of 3 hold
5.8% · 2 of 3 hold
3.2% · 1 of 3 hold
Other early buyers
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0.0% · 2 of 3 hold
0.0% · 2 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
6.3% · 4 wallets
5.9% · 6 wallets
3.3% · 6 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
89.7%
94.1%
96.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 1 merged
100% · 1 merged
100% · 1 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 6 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.