DRAGON nearly.trade

dragon-3.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch dragon-3.nearlytr….near
  • +5
    The name 'dragon' was already used 32.4 h earlier by another creator (dragon-2.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch dragon-2.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 16 % (1109 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: +6071.97 NEAR · insiders' net result: +285.91 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 42% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-29 15:27:28 UTC · block 217794810 · history: launch only
Transaction762vA1WLzMLsZ…XLZRj
Creatorlittlefrog7181.near explorer
Pooldragon-3.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy25.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-12 10:00 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-12 10:00 UTC
Price now3.78x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.12x the peak
Outside buyers in profit158 of 536 · 29.5%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group1.7% · 1 of 19 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)3685132173255
Buyers spent2,307.59 NEAR5,401.56 NEAR8,486.32 NEAR11,221.68 NEAR15,359.02 NEAR
Buyers net result+4,745.71 NEAR+9,534.90 NEAR+19,117.50 NEAR+15,697.64 NEAR+6,071.97 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+224.47 NEAR+388.22 NEAR+685.43 NEAR+586.57 NEAR+285.91 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer9.82x16.26x27.96x28.83x28.83x
Holders367410712090
Top 10 holders' share77.2%69.2%63.5%61.8%66.7%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 2.3% · holds 2.3% · holds 2.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 15.3% · 17 of 19 hold 10.5% · 15 of 19 hold 10.3% · 11 of 19 hold
Other early buyers 47.3% · 11 of 11 hold 45.3% · 11 of 11 hold 41.5% · 10 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)62.6% · 30 wallets55.8% · 30 wallets51.8% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)35.0%41.8%45.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)77.2%69.2%61.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder80.6% · 3 merged71.5% · 3 merged64% · 3 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 38 s · transaction 2.50 NEAR 69 s after buying · transaction +19.13 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 49.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.0 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 53.4 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
2 livezip2803.near 53 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 5.9 min after buying · transaction +729.04 NEAR none found
3 3347dd8076331ad…52407 60 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 41 s after buying · transaction +0.86 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches
pair bought within 27.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.4 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 22.0 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4 sessssssssss.near 87 s · transaction 5.00 NEAR 77 s after buying · transaction +27.38 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches
pair bought within 27.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.2 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 91 s · transaction 145.00 NEAR 51 s after buying · transaction +25.16 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches
pair bought within 4.2 s of sessssssssss.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.9 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 31.4 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
6 livestreet4904.near 97 s · transaction 425.00 NEAR not sold +6,120.14 NEAR none found
7 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d 119 s · transaction 391.36 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction +79.58 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 32.1 s of sessssssssss.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.9 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.5 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8 cleangrain2761.near 2.1 min · transaction 80.00 NEAR 31.4 min after buying · transaction +733.86 NEAR none found
9 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 2.4 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 30.4 min after buying · transaction +182.46 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 27.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 51.5 s of 920b3a669f9f318…ce387 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.7 s of sessssssssss.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10 sorrynook2752.near 2.7 min · transaction 120.00 NEAR not sold +980.78 NEAR none found
11 teend.near 2.8 min · transaction 125.00 NEAR 3.5 min after buying · transaction +66.83 NEAR
pair bought within 0.7 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 50.8 s of 6dae7aab94c318e…8ff5d · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 11.9 s of 0xfrex.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12 579b7294974b54d…30203 2.9 min · transaction 15.00 NEAR 5.4 min after buying · transaction +31.95 NEAR
pair bought within 42.9 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.9 s of 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 48.8 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
13 0xfrex.near 3.0 min · transaction 1.00 NEAR 55 s after buying · transaction +0.20 NEAR
pair bought within 11.9 s of teend.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14 longbank6395.near 3.3 min · transaction 125.00 NEAR 36.6 min after buying · transaction +860.92 NEAR none found
15 e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 3.6 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 2.7 min after buying · transaction +76.22 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 42.9 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.8 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.9 s of cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
16 cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486 3.7 min · transaction 4.95 NEAR 4.8 min after buying · transaction +13.55 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 48.8 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 57.1 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.9 s of e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17 quick-rider-483….near 3.8 min · transaction 3.05 NEAR 6.8 min after buying · transaction +4.44 NEAR none found
18 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 3.9 min · transaction 151.90 NEAR not sold +680.84 NEAR
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches
pair bought within 14.6 s of c56af31c5d7bb18…08101 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.2 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 c56af31c5d7bb18…08101 4.1 min · transaction 101.27 NEAR not sold +399.03 NEAR
pair bought within 0.6 s of 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.6 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 13c7fc4ee25e5c9…76a53 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 13c7fc4ee25e5c9…76a53 4.1 min · transaction 101.27 NEAR not sold +348.39 NEAR
pair bought within 0.0 s of c56af31c5d7bb18…08101 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of littlefrog7181.near

None known.