DRAGONROOT nearly.trade

dragonroot.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 30 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 21.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2100).
Evidence: launch dragonroot.nearly….near
+10
Received 91.00 NEAR 6 min before the launch from vastzone6416.near, whose earlier launch pulse.nearlytrade.near (made by likelyelk6314.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 9XSRMY9rQ4KGx1gH2…DrmmJ, launch pulse.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 27 % (2172 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 23.9 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 79 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 99.4% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: weirdkoala7243.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-12 06:31:12 UTC, 123.3 min after the launch: DQkrzrgd6iUwi…DpYVK.
Outside buyers' net result: -5.28 NEAR · insiders' net result: -4.53 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 79% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-12 04:27:52 UTC · block 219621825 · history: launch only
Transaction	5pZGidYHP9AGY…CJyEd
Creator	weirdkoala7243.near explorer
Pool	dragonroot.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 21.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-20 02:51 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-20 02:51 UTC
Price now	0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.79x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	2 of 6 · 33.3%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 3 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	23.9%	7.8%	23.9%	99.4%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	8.2 min	8.2 min	8.2 min	8.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	3	4	4	5	6
Buyers spent	8.50 NEAR	18.50 NEAR	18.50 NEAR	38.50 NEAR	48.50 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.19 NEAR	-0.09 NEAR	+0.92 NEAR	+0.90 NEAR	-5.28 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	23.9%	7.8%	23.9%	99.4%
Insiders' net result	+0.10 NEAR	+0.51 NEAR	+1.47 NEAR	+4.89 NEAR	-4.53 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.01x	1.03x	1.08x	1.15x	1.20x
Holders	4	4	4	6	5
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.9% · holds	1.6% · holds	6.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	1.6% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0.8% · 3 of 3 hold	0.7% · 2 of 3 hold	0.5% · 1 of 3 hold
Other early buyers	—	0.9% · 1 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.8% · 3 wallets	1.6% · 4 wallets	2.1% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.3%	96.8%	91.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	10.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 16.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.2 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
2	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	22 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	47.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.12 NEAR	pair bought within 16.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.4 s of 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	48 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.61 NEAR	pair bought within 42.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	ba0f0d4ae4338b9…b33c8	5.5 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	26.6 min after buying · transaction	+0.01 NEAR	none found
5	vastzone6416.near	51.4 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.18 NEAR	dev side received 62.00 NEAR from likelyelk6314.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 891.3 min before its first buy · transaction

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of weirdkoala7243.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-12 07:03 UTC	nearly.trade	nearperps.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only
2026-10-12 07:55 UTC	nearly.trade	attention-3.nearlytrade.near	30 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only