DRAGONS nearly.trade

dragons-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (1.200% per buy, 1.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).
Evidence: launch dragons-2.nearlyt….near
+5
The name 'dragons' was already used 32 min earlier by another creator (dragons.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near).
Evidence: launch dragons.v2-launch….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 34 % (726 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Received tokens from the dev: treasury.sickyak1747.near.
Outside buyers' net result: +3456.23 NEAR · insiders' net result: +12706.03 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 65% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-23 11:35:03 UTC · block 221232183 · history: launch only
Transaction	122iBWnHp8f3G…c29BU
Creator	drygoat3271.near explorer
Pool	dragons-2.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	42.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 17:44 UTC

13 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built

Buyers in profit	37	85 of 227 outside buyers
Buy pressure	0	buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak	13	the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity	0	0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-13 08:58 UTC
Price now	5.11x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.13x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	85 of 227 · 37.4%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	2.3% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	50% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1% · 5 of 20 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	42	106	136	146	187
Buyers spent	1,206.91 NEAR	6,494.47 NEAR	8,917.08 NEAR	9,715.24 NEAR	13,981.45 NEAR
Buyers net result	+576.25 NEAR	+6,373.01 NEAR	+4,420.47 NEAR	+3,395.55 NEAR	+3,456.23 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+4,551.27 NEAR	+17,316.83 NEAR	+14,025.60 NEAR	+12,136.39 NEAR	+12,706.03 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	10.88x	39.83x	39.83x	39.83x	39.83x
Holders	37	90	100	86	106
Top 10 holders' share	92.8%	87.1%	84.7%	85.5%	83.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	52.3% · holds	52.3% · holds	52.3% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	6.2% · 18 of 20 hold	3.7% · 17 of 20 hold	3.8% · 11 of 20 hold
Other early buyers	7.2% · 10 of 10 hold	7.0% · 8 of 10 hold	6.7% · 8 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	13.3% · 30 wallets	10.7% · 30 wallets	10.5% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	34.3%	37%	37.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	92.8%	87.1%	85.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	93.1% · 2 merged	87.1% · 1 merged	85.5% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	4.00 NEAR	8.0 min after buying · transaction	+54.37 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of franky.user.int….near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	+17.72 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of franky.user.int….near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	18.4 min after buying · transaction	+11.39 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of franky.user.int….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
4	franky.user.int….near	49 s · transaction	49.50 NEAR	not sold	+201.54 NEAR	pair bought within 46.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.6 s of alola.near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	62 s · transaction	80.00 NEAR	not sold	+168.23 NEAR	pair bought within 43.6 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.2 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
6	cbf71336c08ec03…762f2	83 s · transaction	462.79 NEAR	4.4 min after buying · transaction	+98.03 NEAR	pair bought within 22.5 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.1 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.8 s of krhuize.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	sparedove4693.near	90 s · transaction	130.00 NEAR	not sold	+454.63 NEAR	none found
8	1abb937e7aebae7…3416e	98 s · transaction	400.00 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	-23.30 NEAR	pair bought within 7.6 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.6 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.2 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	ethereal_tentac….near	102 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	10.1 min after buying · transaction	+24.34 NEAR	pair bought within 4.1 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of rekttin.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 52.5 s of franky.user.int….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
10	51206134269a0d4….near	105 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	+13.37 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 5 of those launches pair bought within 0.9 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.7 s of hybrid.user.int….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	106 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	+2.54 NEAR	pair bought within 3.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.6 s of franky.user.int….near · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.0 s of rekttin.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
12	rekttin.near	109 s · transaction	149.40 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+112.31 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches pair bought within 3.0 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.2 s of ethereal_tentac….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	110 s · transaction	36.00 NEAR	3.2 min after buying · transaction	+38.51 NEAR	group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches pair bought within 3.6 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of rekttin.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.0 s of 5807dd1bbba54c9….near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
14	49149698e58a511…953cf	113 s · transaction	10.40 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	+11.08 NEAR	none found
15	krhuize.tg	2.0 min · transaction	165.00 NEAR	3.3 min after buying · transaction	+22.45 NEAR	pair bought within 17.3 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of 5807dd1bbba54c9….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.7 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
16	congos.tg	2.1 min · transaction	6.00 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.21 NEAR	none found
17	5807dd1bbba54c9….near	2.1 min · transaction	70.00 NEAR	54 s after buying · transaction	+8.84 NEAR	pair bought within 21.6 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.0 s of 4ae627b0c091dac…352f4 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of krhuize.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
18	toxic-jeet.user….near	2.4 min · transaction	136.43 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+23.22 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 3.5 s of hybrid.user.int….near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.3 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.1 s of krhuize.tg · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
19	2a7f31817cd7531…aa3ba	2.4 min · transaction	79.20 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+36.85 NEAR	pair bought within 38.5 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	leens.near	2.5 min · transaction	115.00 NEAR	not sold	+270.13 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of drygoat3271.near

None known.