DRAGONWAKE nearly.trade

dragonwake.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 60 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+30
13 of the 29 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 13 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 43%.
Evidence: launch kabosu.nearlytrade.near, launch vivian.nearlytrade.near, launch founder.nearlytrade.near, launch nepbot.nearlytrade.near, launch hectile.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (0.700% per buy, 1.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch dragonwake.nearly….near
+10
Received 5.00 NEAR 3 min before the launch from 2eea59e62d7913d9d48e9ba099d5e394bc2658a054fb1ebe01721409a51fdfae, whose earlier launch kabosu.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 2FyNfjiivQB4aMvgT…d9wTE, launch kabosu.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (943 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. outside buyers' net result -0.06 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 97 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: playwright.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-15 19:00:43 UTC, 4.6 min after the launch: 3eyxPvWSMZGqD…TYmJt.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.06 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.24 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 97% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-15 18:56:04 UTC · block 220116934 · history: launch only
Transaction	4nQbjM8cRNRTK…7ZqmH
Creator	playwright.near explorer
Pool	dragonwake.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	5.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-15 19:06 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-15 19:06 UTC
Price now	0.97x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.97x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	0 of 1 · 0%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	4.6 min	4.6 min	4.6 min	4.6 min	4.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	1	1	1	1	1
Buyers spent	1.00 NEAR	1.00 NEAR	1.00 NEAR	1.00 NEAR	1.00 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.03 NEAR	-0.06 NEAR	-0.06 NEAR	-0.06 NEAR	-0.06 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	-0.24 NEAR	-0.24 NEAR	-0.24 NEAR	-0.24 NEAR	-0.24 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.00x	1.00x	1.00x	1.00x	1.00x
Holders	1	0	0	0	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	—	—	—	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	—	—
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.1% · 1 wallets	0% · 1 wallets	0% · 1 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.9%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	—	—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	—	—

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 1 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	10.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of playwright.near

None known.