elonmusk-2.nearlytrade.near
Risk score: Low 5 / 100 issued 2026-11-10 12:26 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0
v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 38 % (272 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-11T12:26 UTC with config v1-fit-1.
| Launched | 2026-11-10 12:26:43 UTC · block 223915856 · live |
|---|---|
| Transaction | 7Fozv3SePtuHX…BjnUz |
| Creator | 74cc5b0c55d24af5b49fd8af1d78c128ac4cb23403b0ee9979200b8ce461aa85 explorer |
| Pool | elonmusk-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000 |
| Dev buy | 42.51 NEAR |
| Tax options | buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00% |
No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 13:28 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
| Last trade | 2026-11-10 13:28 UTC |
|---|---|
| Price now | 1.13x the first outside buyer's entry · 1.00x the peak |
| Outside buyers in profit | 5 of 6 · 83.3% |
| Last 15 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Last 60 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Buyers in the last hour | 0 |
| Dev account | 3.9% · 1 of 1 hold |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 0% · 0 of 5 hold |
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
| Metric | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+30 min | T+60 min | T+24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Dev's first sell after launch | — | — | — | — | — |
| Buyers (other than the insiders) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Buyers spent | 4.50 NEAR | 4.50 NEAR | 4.50 NEAR | 4.50 NEAR | 37.50 NEAR |
| Buyers net result | +0.20 NEAR | +0.18 NEAR | +0.18 NEAR | +0.18 NEAR | +0.18 NEAR |
| Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Insiders sold (share of what they acquired) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Insiders' net result | +0.22 NEAR | +0.10 NEAR | +0.03 NEAR | +0.03 NEAR | +2.66 NEAR |
| Highest price vs first buyer | 1.07x | 1.07x | 1.07x | 1.07x | 1.13x |
| Holders | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Top 10 holders' share | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
| Holder | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+60 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dev account | 3.9% · holds | 3.9% · holds | 3.9% · holds |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — | — | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 0.1% · 2 of 5 hold | 0% · 0 of 5 hold | 0% · 0 of 5 hold |
| Other early buyers | — | — | — |
| All early buyers (the six rows above) | 0.1% · 5 wallets | 0% · 5 wallets | 0% · 5 wallets |
| Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers) | 96.0% | 96.1% | 96.1% |
| Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets) | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder | 100% · 0 merged | 100% · 0 merged | 100% · 0 merged |
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
| # | Wallet | After the launch | Spent | First sell | Net result at T+60 | Links (recorded transfers and trades) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jopka.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 81 s after buying · transaction | +0.05 NEAR |
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 2 | yazaplakal.send….near trading bot wallet | 8 s · transaction | 0.50 NEAR | 5.0 min after buying · transaction | +0.02 NEAR |
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 3 | trade.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 3.0 min after buying · transaction | +0.04 NEAR |
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 72 of 129 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 4 | dolph.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 3.0 min after buying · transaction | +0.04 NEAR |
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 5 | c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer | 8 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 5.0 min after buying · transaction | +0.03 NEAR |
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
|
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.
| Time | Launchpad | Token | Risk | Outcome | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 01:46 UTC | nearly.trade | ndog-2ad38e.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-23 12:45 UTC | nearly.trade | stonks.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-23 13:05 UTC | nearly.trade | anon.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-23 13:06 UTC | nearly.trade | zdog.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-23 13:11 UTC | nearly.trade | jubjub.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-23 14:07 UTC | nearly.trade | redacted.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-24 04:22 UTC | nearly.trade | stonks-2.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-24 04:29 UTC | nearly.trade | flybrain.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-24 04:33 UTC | nearly.trade | aaplcat.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 10:58 UTC | nearly.trade | trex.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 10:59 UTC | nearly.trade | macrohard.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 10:59 UTC | nearly.trade | clippy.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:01 UTC | nearly.trade | jacket.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:03 UTC | nearly.trade | optimus.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:04 UTC | nearly.trade | ai.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:07 UTC | nearly.trade | zeal.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:08 UTC | nearly.trade | ket.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:10 UTC | nearly.trade | si.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:11 UTC | nearly.trade | si-2.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:47 UTC | nearly.trade | ylraen.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 11:53 UTC | nearly.trade | peenly.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 15:23 UTC | nearly.trade | ncat-2.nearlytrade.near | 25 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 15:25 UTC | nearly.trade | ndog-3.nearlytrade.near | 25 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-25 15:37 UTC | nearly.trade | knt.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-27 10:11 UTC | nearly.trade | ncat-3.nearlytrade.near | 25 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 12:05 UTC | nearly.trade | mim.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 12:06 UTC | nearly.trade | abtc.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 12:07 UTC | nearly.trade | mim-2.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 12:09 UTC | nearly.trade | shrub.nearlytrade.near | 20 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 12:42 UTC | nearly.trade | stonks-3.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 12:51 UTC | nearly.trade | stonks-4.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-10-14 01:18 UTC | nearly.trade | mim-5.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-10-14 01:21 UTC | nearly.trade | nyan-2.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-11-10 12:19 UTC | nearly.trade | mmli-4.nearlytrade.near | 5 Low | no rug | live |
| 2026-11-10 12:40 UTC | nearly.trade | meili.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low | no rug | live |