FDE nearly.trade

fde.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch fde.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 29 % (742 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 9.80 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: forwarddeployedengine….near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-21 22:19:32 UTC, 41 s after the launch: 7qu8bJ8sXcMVu…73kbD.
Outside buyers' net result: -9.80 NEAR · insiders' net result: +4.31 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-21 22:18:51 UTC · block 221005243 · history: launch only
Transaction	3mB7vbvQWytLs…XLi5b
Creator	forwarddeployedengineering.near explorer
Pool	fde.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-22 04:04 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-22 04:04 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.77x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	5 of 12 · 41.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 12 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	41 s	41 s	41 s	41 s	41 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)	12	12	12	12	12
Buyers spent	138.39 NEAR	138.39 NEAR	138.39 NEAR	138.39 NEAR	138.39 NEAR
Buyers net result	-8.68 NEAR	-9.46 NEAR	-9.76 NEAR	-9.80 NEAR	-10.01 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+4.31 NEAR	+4.31 NEAR	+4.31 NEAR	+4.31 NEAR	+4.31 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.28x	1.28x	1.28x	1.28x	1.28x
Holders	5	6	5	4	2
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.9% · 5 of 12 hold	1.2% · 5 of 12 hold	1.0% · 3 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.9% · 12 wallets	1.2% · 12 wallets	1.0% · 12 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.1%	98.8%	99.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 12 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	ro52.near	2 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	3.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 57 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.1 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	43 s after buying · transaction	+0.17 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	bright-panda-28….near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	40 s after buying · transaction	+0.34 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 110 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of alola.near · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 125 of 223 launches (not put in a group)
4	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	40 s after buying · transaction	+0.08 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of alola.near · 94 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 93 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
5	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	5 s · transaction	18.89 NEAR	38 s after buying · transaction	+2.38 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 1.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.7 s of 30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 93 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
6	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	9 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.46 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 4.7 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.7 s of alola.near · 41 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
7	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	13 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.60 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches pair bought within 10.3 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.5 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8	decep.near	21 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	9.2 min after buying · transaction	-2.16 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 31 of those launches pair bought within 17.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of beenhere.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.5 s of alola.near · 21 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
9	beenhere.near	21 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	26.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.29 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 32 of those launches pair bought within 18.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 27 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.0 s of alola.near · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of decep.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	25 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	61 s after buying · transaction	-3.31 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 7.4 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.9 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	32 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 29.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.1 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 94 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
12	7b0y.near	37 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	13 s after buying · transaction	-5.81 NEAR	pair bought within 5.1 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.5 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of forwarddeployedengine….near

None known.