Received 53.72 NEAR 49 min before the launch from nearbitwiseetf.near, whose earlier launch noted-2.nearlytrade.near (made by blockradaronnear.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 21 % (1949 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 37.4 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 3; they sold 37.4% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -0.82 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.04 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 96% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-01 21:34:51 UTC · block 218112105 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 30.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-04 06:50 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-04 06:50 UTC
Price now
0.91x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.88x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 8 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
0.0% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 5 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
37.4%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
158.2 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
5
5
5
6
8
Buyers spent
18.11 NEAR
18.11 NEAR
18.11 NEAR
23.06 NEAR
40.56 NEAR
Buyers net result
+0.11 NEAR
+0.11 NEAR
+0.11 NEAR
-0.46 NEAR
-0.82 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
3
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
37.4%
Insiders' net result
+2.52 NEAR
+2.52 NEAR
+2.52 NEAR
+1.64 NEAR
+0.04 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
1.03x
Holders
6
6
6
5
7
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
3.7% · holds
3.7% · holds
3.7% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
1.6% · 5 of 5 hold
1.6% · 5 of 5 hold
1.5% · 4 of 5 hold
Other early buyers
—
—
0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
1.6% · 5 wallets
1.6% · 5 wallets
1.5% · 6 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
94.7%
94.7%
94.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 6 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.