FUTURE nearly.trade

future.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 3.00% buy / 3.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 10.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 300, sell_bps 300, creator_bps 1000).
Evidence: launch future.nearlytrade.near

The largest funder's (timeisnear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (129 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -12.09 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.86 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 41% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-27 00:42:36 UTC · block 217414433 · history: launch only
Transaction	AcJ44TkBnu4Cx…9g21h
Creator	futureisnear2026.near explorer
Pool	future.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	2.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 3.00% · sell 3.00% · creator's share of the tax 10.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-23 00:12 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-23 00:12 UTC
Price now	1.05x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.26x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	22 of 89 · 24.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 2 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	1	4	4	4	85
Buyers spent	4.00 NEAR	55.00 NEAR	55.00 NEAR	55.00 NEAR	1,578.83 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.12 NEAR	+0.16 NEAR	+0.16 NEAR	+0.16 NEAR	-12.09 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	-0.09 NEAR	+0.24 NEAR	+0.24 NEAR	+0.24 NEAR	+0.86 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.00x	1.08x	1.08x	1.08x	4.02x
Holders	3	6	6	6	48
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	75.1%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.4% · holds	0.4% · holds	0.4% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	—	4.4% · 2 of 2 hold	4.4% · 2 of 2 hold
Other early buyers	0.4% · 1 of 1 hold	0.5% · 2 of 2 hold	0.5% · 2 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0.4% · 1 wallets	4.9% · 4 wallets	4.9% · 4 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	99.3%	94.8%	94.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 4 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	moonismoon.near	4.5 min · transaction	4.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.21 NEAR	none found
2	masterbaba.near	5.8 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.05 NEAR	none found
3	capuccino88.near	11.7 min · transaction	30.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.50 NEAR	pair bought within 37.4 s of gusri.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	gusri.near	12.3 min · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.60 NEAR	pair bought within 37.4 s of capuccino88.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of futureisnear2026.near

None known.