GIKO nearly.trade

giko.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+50
2 of the 2 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 2 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 60%.
Evidence: launch ci6900.nearlytrade.near, launch riptide.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (1.600% per buy, 1.600% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch giko.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 28.53 NEAR 8 min before the launch from convictionindex6900.near, whose earlier launch ci6900.nearlytrade.near ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction F9pLWDoEsQG6aAYXR…aurCW, launch ci6900.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 5 % (388 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 0.79 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: gikonearcat.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 15:44:05 UTC, 4.5 min after the launch: D4gpXPwjS5y6T…jEhFu.
Outside buyers' net result: -0.79 NEAR · insiders' net result: -1.41 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-28 15:39:35 UTC · block 217651295 · history: launch only
Transaction	BQwW5rUmWMKew…7nPJ3
Creator	gikonearcat.near explorer
Pool	giko.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	25.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-28 16:03 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-28 16:03 UTC
Price now	0.94x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.92x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	0 of 4 · 0%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 3 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	4.5 min	4.5 min	4.5 min	4.5 min	4.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	3	3	4	4	4
Buyers spent	12.50 NEAR	12.50 NEAR	15.50 NEAR	15.50 NEAR	15.50 NEAR
Buyers net result	-0.73 NEAR	-0.73 NEAR	-0.79 NEAR	-0.79 NEAR	-0.79 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	-1.41 NEAR	-1.41 NEAR	-1.41 NEAR	-1.41 NEAR	-1.41 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.02x	1.02x	1.02x	1.02x	1.02x
Holders	1	1	2	5	5
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 3 hold	0% · 0 of 3 hold	0% · 0 of 3 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	0.3% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	0% · 3 wallets	0% · 3 wallets	0.3% · 4 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	100%	100%	99.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 4 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	45 s · transaction	1.50 NEAR	3.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 39.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence
2	e8a162641a55288…58210	85 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.35 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 39.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.8 s of sessssssssss.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
3	sessssssssss.near	2.1 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	90 s after buying · transaction	-0.29 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 66 of those launches pair bought within 41.8 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
4	7c6848bc51e24bf…4b5c2	23.9 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.06 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of gikonearcat.near

None known.