HBD nearly.trade

hbd.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

  • +20
    Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).

The largest funder's (sticky_virus5.user.intear.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 30 % (741 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 94 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-22 00:28:15 UTC · block 221018471 · history: launch only
TransactionH9n3Y7oqGaqKX…BfK9g
Creatordeeproot.user.intear.near explorer
Poolhbd.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy1.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-22 06:29 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-22 06:29 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.94x the peak
Outside buyers in profit0 of 6 · 0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev0.3% · 3 of 3 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 4 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%100.0%
Dev's first sell after launch————361.0 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)55556
Buyers spent24.48 NEAR24.48 NEAR26.48 NEAR26.48 NEAR26.98 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.48 NEAR-0.63 NEAR-0.22 NEAR-0.22 NEAR-1.57 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)22224
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%100.0%
Insiders' net result+0.0009 NEAR-0.0043 NEAR+0.02 NEAR+0.02 NEAR-0.06 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.05x1.05x1.05x1.05x1.05x
Holders43332
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev 0.1% · 1 of 1 hold 0.1% · 1 of 1 hold 0.2% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 1.9% · 2 of 4 hold 1.8% · 1 of 4 hold 1.8% · 1 of 4 hold
Other early buyers 0.2% · 1 of 1 hold 0.2% · 1 of 1 hold 0.4% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)2.1% · 5 wallets1.9% · 5 wallets2.1% · 5 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)97.8%98.0%97.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 5 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 wrapz-z.near independent sniper 3 s · transaction 2.00 NEAR 12.2 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
2 tyty.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet 3 s · transaction 0.50 NEAR 63 s after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR
3 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper 4 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 3.1 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
4 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 5 s · transaction 18.98 NEAR not sold -0.07 NEAR
5 sticky_virus5.u….near 2.9 min · transaction 4.00 NEAR not sold -0.09 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of deeproot.user.intear.near

None known.