HOLD nearly.trade

hold-2.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 1.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch hold-2.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'hold' was already used 112.1 h earlier by another creator (hold.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch hold.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2176 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Outside buyers' net result: +0.04 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.01 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 81% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-10-02 18:34:27 UTC · block 218240139 · history: launch only
Transaction8KkZfuhJc7etV…XQZmg
Creatorsteepgoat5771.near explorer
Pooldiarhea.nearlytrade.near|hold-2.nearlytrade.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 1.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-03 15:45 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0 · no trade seen in our live data
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Dev's first sell after launch—————
Buyers (other than the insiders)2428282835
Buyers spent1.87 NEAR2.27 NEAR2.28 NEAR2.28 NEAR2.81 NEAR
Buyers net result+0.30 NEAR+0.05 NEAR-0.04 NEAR-0.04 NEAR+0.04 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%0%0%0%
Insiders' net result+0.02 NEAR+0.0092 NEAR+0.0027 NEAR+0.0027 NEAR+0.01 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.62x1.62x1.62x1.62x1.62x
Holders221291314
Top 10 holders' share75.3%98.1%100%99.6%99.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0.8% · holds 0.8% · holds 0.8% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 11.4% · 13 of 15 hold 2.8% · 2 of 15 hold 0.2% · 1 of 15 hold
Other early buyers 7.7% · 8 of 9 hold 9.8% · 9 of 13 hold 7.9% · 7 of 13 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)19.1% · 24 wallets12.6% · 28 wallets8.0% · 28 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)80.1%86.5%91.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)75.3%98.1%99.6%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder95.1% · 2 merged98.1% · 0 merged99.6% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 greenjacket548.near 18 s · transaction 0.16 NEAR not sold +0.02 NEAR none found
2 betteralex.near 44 s · transaction 0.17 NEAR not sold +0.01 NEAR none found
3 d1de82541ee4575…a191b 60 s · transaction 0.01 NEAR not sold +0.0004 NEAR
pair bought within 39.0 s of 47dd6e35850af27…57fd4 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.3 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.3 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
4 francisss.near 63 s · transaction 0.01 NEAR not sold +0.0003 NEAR none found
5 a61602ebdc9b583…012fc 65 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction +0.0098 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6 fd5c09668cb779b…28411 65 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction +0.0088 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7 c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 65 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR 4.2 min after buying · transaction +0.0051 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 66 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR 4.3 min after buying · transaction +0.0038 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 1.0 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.2 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 67 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR 4.3 min after buying · transaction +0.0020 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches
pair bought within 1.0 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.2 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.2 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10 92befaeab31c07a…0b783 69 s · transaction 0.02 NEAR 4.7 min after buying · transaction +0.0013 NEAR
pair bought within 9.4 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.4 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 71 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction +0.0047 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches
pair bought within 3.9 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.9 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 6.1 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
12 886fd94398f173c…35c2c 77 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR 4.0 min after buying · transaction +0.0032 NEAR
group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 26 of those launches
pair bought within 5.9 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.9 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 10.9 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 4 more pairs · all pairs
13 howareyouhaha.near 96 s · transaction 0.22 NEAR 2.4 min after buying · transaction +0.05 NEAR none found
14 47dd6e35850af27…57fd4 99 s · transaction 0.22 NEAR 17.4 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
pair bought within 39.0 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.7 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.6 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
15 rudekoala8051.near 115 s · transaction 0.06 NEAR not sold -0.01 NEAR none found
16 a3cb153394cd999…41e6c 118 s · transaction 0.02 NEAR 2.1 min after buying · transaction +0.0001 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 9 of those launches
pair bought within 20.5 s of 5249d63913e1405…591d1 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 58.7 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 19.7 s of 47dd6e35850af27…57fd4 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17 5249d63913e1405…591d1 2.3 min · transaction 0.16 NEAR 3.4 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches
pair bought within 20.5 s of a3cb153394cd999…41e6c · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
18 iagipero.near 3.0 min · transaction 0.11 NEAR 8.9 min after buying · transaction -0.02 NEAR
pair bought within 58.2 s of sweetibis8395.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 07c4f546ac45df7…72216 3.1 min · transaction 0.01 NEAR not sold -0.0029 NEAR none found
20 e53f4e2dade71ca…cd5f7 3.4 min · transaction 0.11 NEAR 51 s after buying · transaction -0.01 NEAR
pair bought within 33.8 s of sweetibis8395.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of steepgoat5771.near

None known.