HOOT nearly.trade

hoot-17.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (3.200% per buy, 3.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch hoot-17.nearlytrade.near
  • +5
    The name 'hoot' was already used 65 min earlier by another creator (hoot-16.nearlytrade.near).
    Evidence: launch hoot-16.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (1406 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; the price held at 73 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 439ca1284e71a91bffb06…dec0a (dev).
  • Outside buyers' net result: -18.54 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.11 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 73% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-30 12:33:03 UTC · block 217917696 · history: launch only
Transaction4qzNg37rGbbYU…wfcWQ
Creator439ca1284e71a91bffb06fc3abc7796825129c7b7afed8c69831fb0b07cdec0a explorer
Poolhoot-17.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:44 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-09-30 17:45 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-09-30 17:45 UTC
Price now0.96x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.73x the peak
Outside buyers in profit0 of 13 · 0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group<0.01% · 1 of 12 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)—————
Dev's first sell after launch————312.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)1313131313
Buyers spent218.88 NEAR218.88 NEAR218.88 NEAR218.88 NEAR218.88 NEAR
Buyers net result-18.48 NEAR-18.50 NEAR-18.50 NEAR-18.51 NEAR-18.54 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)—————
Insiders' net result0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR0.00 NEAR+1.11 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.33x1.33x1.33x1.33x1.33x
Holders44434
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 0.1% · 3 of 12 hold 0.1% · 3 of 12 hold 0.1% · 2 of 12 hold
Other early buyers 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.1% · 13 wallets0.1% · 13 wallets0.1% · 13 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)99.9%99.9%99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 2 merged100% · 2 merged100% · 1 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 13 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 betteralex.near 23 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -0.74 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 15 of those launches
pair bought within 1.5 s of gigasnipe.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.2 s of samegrain2799.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.9 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
2 gigasnipe.near 25 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -0.78 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 0.7 s of samegrain2799.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.5 s of betteralex.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.4 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
3 samegrain2799.near 25 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -0.82 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 0.7 s of gigasnipe.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.2 s of betteralex.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.7 s of steepgoat5771.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4 steepgoat5771.near 26 s · transaction 19.40 NEAR 2.8 min after buying · transaction -3.21 NEAR
group one of 5 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 0.7 s of samegrain2799.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.4 s of gigasnipe.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 2.9 s of betteralex.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
5 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 36 s · transaction 8.01 NEAR 11 s after buying · transaction -0.73 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
6 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 36 s · transaction 8.01 NEAR 7 s after buying · transaction -0.46 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
7 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 36 s · transaction 8.01 NEAR 7 s after buying · transaction -0.66 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 60 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
8 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 36 s · transaction 8.01 NEAR 7 s after buying · transaction -0.86 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 63 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 60 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 3f39dba00ad8c19…e3735 · 58 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 8 more pairs · all pairs
9 c28ebb8af189396…a8c13 36 s · transaction 8.01 NEAR 7 s after buying · transaction -1.05 NEAR
group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches
pair bought within 0.0 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 33319fac01abb0a…182c0 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.0 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10 supremegay.near 63 s · transaction 47.50 NEAR 30 s after buying · transaction -2.09 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 5.8 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.4 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 27.4 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
11 syndi95.near 69 s · transaction 23.75 NEAR 19 s after buying · transaction -1.35 NEAR
pair bought within 5.8 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.2 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 33.2 s of 03712631d52c0ad…1b110 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
12 2fa1d1e486a70f9…14f7c 84 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 93 s after buying · transaction -5.76 NEAR
pair bought within 48.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 15.3 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.1 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
13 trenchla.near 95 s · transaction 0.0010 NEAR 25 s after buying · transaction -0.0001 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 439ca1284e71a91bffb06…dec0a

None known.