HRVST nearly.trade

hrvst.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

  • +20
    Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (3.200% per buy, 3.200% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
    Evidence: launch hrvst.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 4 % (409 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 92.54 NEAR.

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
  • Sold by: near-farm.near (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-09-28 16:41:21 UTC, 16.8 min after the launch: 7qB3FENEqmQMk…cw7jy.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -92.54 NEAR · insiders' net result: +8.11 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-09-28 16:24:30 UTC · block 217655839 · history: launch only
TransactionrjkqvLknVFaNz…1W2fs
Creatornear-farm.near explorer
Poolhrvst.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000
Dev buy20.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-19 19:12 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-10-19 19:12 UTC
Price now0.95x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.38x the peak
Outside buyers in profit16 of 48 · 33.3%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group0% · 0 of 22 hold
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Dev's first sell after launch——16.8 min16.8 min16.8 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)2846484848
Buyers spent479.66 NEAR1,116.30 NEAR1,220.65 NEAR1,220.65 NEAR1,220.65 NEAR
Buyers net result+188.21 NEAR+12.39 NEAR-90.01 NEAR-92.54 NEAR-95.13 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%0%100%100%100%
Insiders' net result+21.35 NEAR+13.77 NEAR+8.11 NEAR+8.11 NEAR+8.11 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer2.11x2.47x2.47x2.47x2.47x
Holders30251287
Top 10 holders' share77.4%86.8%99.9%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.8% · holds 1.8% · holds 0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — 2.0% · 1 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group 27.1% · 21 of 21 hold 2.4% · 6 of 22 hold 0% · 0 of 22 hold
Other early buyers 2.4% · 7 of 7 hold 3.5% · 7 of 7 hold 0.2% · 2 of 7 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)29.5% · 28 wallets7.9% · 30 wallets0.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)68.7%90.2%99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)77.4%86.8%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder86.0% · 3 merged86.8% · 2 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b 37 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 2.2 min after buying · transaction +0.75 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches
pair bought within 42.4 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.2 s of oliut100.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.1 s of 0xfrex.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
2 oyennn.near 42 s · transaction 49.75 NEAR 5.6 min after buying · transaction +43.04 NEAR
pair bought within 5.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 36.9 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 55.3 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
3 oliut100.near 62 s · transaction 9.95 NEAR 5.5 min after buying · transaction +4.58 NEAR
pair bought within 25.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 17.2 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
4 ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be 69 s · transaction 50.00 NEAR 5.7 min after buying · transaction +11.21 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 13 of those launches
pair bought within 4.2 s of aceng03.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.2 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 9.8 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5 aceng03.near 73 s · transaction 10.00 NEAR 16.1 min after buying · transaction +1.42 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 33 of those launches
pair bought within 4.2 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 24.0 s of panjipetualang.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.4 s of 0xfrex.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6 0xfrex.near 75 s · transaction 30.00 NEAR 12.7 min after buying · transaction +15.10 NEAR
pair bought within 4.2 s of alola.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 1.4 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 38.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
7 alola.near 79 s · transaction 1.50 NEAR 6.6 min after buying · transaction +0.33 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches
pair bought within 42.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 4.2 s of 0xfrex.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 5.6 s of aceng03.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 7 more pairs · all pairs
8 7ce0a3e28d6a9e6…f6633 97 s · transaction 149.25 NEAR 13.2 min after buying · transaction +8.65 NEAR
pair bought within 17.6 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 0.8 s of panjipetualang.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 23.2 s of aceng03.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
9 panjipetualang.near 97 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +0.37 NEAR
group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
pair bought within 24.0 s of aceng03.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 18.4 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.2 s of ee0a4fe1198ae97…5d0be · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10 peekaby.near 2.0 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 4.8 min after buying · transaction +3.49 NEAR
pair bought within 18.6 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 47.9 s of aceng03.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.3 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
11 tuyulz.near 2.1 min · transaction 84.57 NEAR 4.6 min after buying · transaction +3.13 NEAR
pair bought within 46.7 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 52.3 s of aceng03.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.3 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
12 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 2.3 min · transaction 100.00 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction +8.04 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 77 of those launches
pair bought within 28.5 s of supremegay.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.9 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 42.6 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13 lorenzo18.near 2.4 min · transaction 20.00 NEAR 4.9 min after buying · transaction +0.70 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches
pair bought within 3.7 s of louduser4868.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.4 s of supremegay.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 45.7 s of panjipetualang.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14 louduser4868.near 2.5 min · transaction 10.00 NEAR 4.6 min after buying · transaction +1.06 NEAR
group one of 4 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 17 of those launches
pair bought within 3.7 s of lorenzo18.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 21.7 s of supremegay.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 49.4 s of panjipetualang.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
15 supremegay.near 2.8 min · transaction 38.80 NEAR 4.9 min after buying · transaction -4.89 NEAR
group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches
pair bought within 46.5 s of syndi95.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 28.5 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 25.4 s of lorenzo18.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 2 more pairs · all pairs
16 badriansyahirwa….near 3.0 min · transaction 0.50 NEAR 17.8 min after buying · transaction -0.10 NEAR
pair bought within 42.9 s of 7edb53f9c719bb6…a73a8 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 14.5 s of supremegay.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.1 s of syndi95.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
and 1 more pairs · all pairs
17 21c8a7c6b7f989b…a3e63 3.2 min · transaction 3.00 NEAR not sold -1.32 NEAR none found
18 a98e726c755db35…a3255 3.4 min · transaction 0.99 NEAR 3.2 min after buying · transaction +0.16 NEAR
pair bought within 58.3 s of louduser4868.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
19 syndi95.near 3.6 min · transaction 19.90 NEAR 4.1 min after buying · transaction -3.16 NEAR
pair bought within 46.5 s of supremegay.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence
pair bought within 32.1 s of badriansyahirwa….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20 sickoil6822.near 4.0 min · transaction 2.00 NEAR 27.4 min after buying · transaction -0.95 NEAR none found
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of near-farm.near

None known.