ICPC nearly.trade

icpc.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch icpc.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 29 % (748 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -7.67 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 80% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-21 19:11:29 UTC · block 220986165 · history: launch only
Transaction	7SCXyBf3BL2jn…ZUn7v
Creator	privacymatter.near explorer
Pool	icpc.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-21 21:33 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	18	18	18	18	18
Buyers spent	139.53 NEAR	139.53 NEAR	139.53 NEAR	139.53 NEAR	139.53 NEAR
Buyers net result	-6.08 NEAR	-6.65 NEAR	-6.82 NEAR	-6.91 NEAR	-7.67 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x	1.22x
Holders	8	5	4	3	1
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.3% · 7 of 15 hold	2.0% · 5 of 15 hold	1.9% · 3 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	0.4% · 1 of 3 hold	0% · 0 of 3 hold	0% · 0 of 3 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	2.7% · 18 wallets	2.0% · 18 wallets	1.9% · 18 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	97.3%	98.0%	98.2%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 18 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	bright-panda-28….near bot_wallet	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 110 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 85 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 67 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 125 of 223 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.0085 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.8 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	61 s after buying · transaction	+0.29 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.5 s of alola.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
4	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	3 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.0 s of alola.near · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
5	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	4 s · transaction	19.08 NEAR	not sold	-0.51 NEAR	pair bought within 1.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	js1112s.near	12 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	63 s after buying · transaction	+0.23 NEAR	pair bought within 9.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.1 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
7	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	15 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 11.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.7 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	2a7f31817cd7531…aa3ba	15 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	54 s after buying · transaction	+0.39 NEAR	pair bought within 11.1 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	26 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.10 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 23.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 11 more pairs · all pairs
10	fuck_you_all.us….near	26 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	47 s after buying · transaction	+0.0027 NEAR	pair bought within 23.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
11	glacial_anomaly….near	31 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	92 s after buying · transaction	-0.34 NEAR	pair bought within 4.9 s of alola.near · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.1 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
12	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	37 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-1.66 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 10.0 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 10 more pairs · all pairs
13	stranger.user.i….near	38 s · transaction	18.81 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-1.93 NEAR	pair bought within 34.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.2 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.3 s of js1112s.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
14	fiery_spire1.us….near	47 s · transaction	7.94 NEAR	19 s after buying · transaction	-0.47 NEAR	pair bought within 20.2 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
15	warmcatt.near	59 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	23 s after buying · transaction	-0.25 NEAR	none found
16	ab2295f07e95ecb…8fa65	84 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	83 s after buying · transaction	-0.32 NEAR	pair bought within 57.9 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	tarbiaa.near	2.5 min · transaction	19.00 NEAR	88 s after buying · transaction	-1.56 NEAR	none found
18	4f6d6da2b2dd46d…97d2f	2.9 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.59 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of privacymatter.near

None known.