illia-3.v2-launchpad.ju….near justhoot v2

illia-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 5 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+5
The name 'illia' was already used 22.1 h earlier by another creator (illia-2.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near).
Evidence: launch illia-2.v2-launch….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 39 % (778 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 21.32 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: illiapolosuckin.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-24 16:43:39 UTC, 12.5 min after the launch: 7tVxjjPMSygxn…9sJou.
Outside buyers' net result: -21.32 NEAR · insiders' net result: +77.64 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-24 16:31:07 UTC · block 221413701 · history: launch only
Transaction	FRJkN7zEJsZHj…dazin
Creator	illiapolosuckin.near explorer
Pool	illia-3.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	60.54 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-24 18:01 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	12.5 min	12.5 min	12.5 min	12.5 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	19	25	25	25	25
Buyers spent	198.53 NEAR	315.74 NEAR	315.74 NEAR	315.74 NEAR	315.74 NEAR
Buyers net result	+3.70 NEAR	-19.71 NEAR	-21.31 NEAR	-21.32 NEAR	-21.32 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+74.52 NEAR	+77.64 NEAR	+77.64 NEAR	+77.64 NEAR	+77.64 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.27x	1.34x	1.34x	1.34x	1.34x
Holders	12	6	2	1	0
Top 10 holders' share	99.2%	100%	100%	100%	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	5% · holds	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.5% · 9 of 15 hold	1.2% · 4 of 15 hold	0.1% · 1 of 15 hold
Other early buyers	1.9% · 2 of 4 hold	1.7% · 2 of 10 hold	0% · 0 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	6.4% · 19 wallets	2.8% · 25 wallets	0.1% · 25 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	88.6%	97.2%	99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	99.2%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	99.7% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	5 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	12.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	5 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	10.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.30 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	tyty.sendler-b.near trading bot wallet	5 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	60 s after buying · transaction	-0.0069 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	5 s · transaction	3.00 NEAR	9.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.91 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 207 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
5	cockis.near	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	32.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 244 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 236 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
6	onlyrekt.near	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	7.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.28 NEAR	pair bought within 1.2 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
7	phbo.near	8 s · transaction	15.00 NEAR	21.0 min after buying · transaction	-3.71 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 53 of those launches pair bought within 3.1 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of cockis.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	51206134269a0d4….near	13 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	22 s after buying · transaction	+0.10 NEAR	pair bought within 10.6 s of alola.near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	56c9a6ef438223b….near	13 s · transaction	48.00 NEAR	33 s after buying · transaction	-0.61 NEAR	pair bought within 7.9 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	24 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.18 NEAR	pair bought within 18.5 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.5 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	b4cb42910279741….near	74 s · transaction	40.00 NEAR	12.1 min after buying · transaction	-1.58 NEAR	pair bought within 50.4 s of alola.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.1 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.5 s of quick-rider-483….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
12	4ae627b0c091dac…352f4	93 s · transaction	19.50 NEAR	2.6 min after buying · transaction	+2.53 NEAR	none found
13	3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804	93 s · transaction	11.45 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.86 NEAR	pair bought within 19.1 s of b4cb42910279741….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.5 s of quick-rider-483….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.7 s of 1070fb609924e73…7cc3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	quick-rider-483….near	2.1 min · transaction	0.79 NEAR	13.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	pair bought within 35.5 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.6 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.5 s of b4cb42910279741….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
15	1070fb609924e73…7cc3b	2.4 min · transaction	11.43 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 23.4 s of 96952333f9d9862…d9f77 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.7 s of 3ab30e9ce2099d0…c3804 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
16	96952333f9d9862…d9f77	2.8 min · transaction	5.71 NEAR	87 s after buying · transaction	+0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 23.4 s of 1070fb609924e73…7cc3b · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.6 s of quick-rider-483….near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	nftgokhanerbatu.near	3.6 min · transaction	14.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.56 NEAR	none found
18	year1.near	4.2 min · transaction	16.95 NEAR	10.2 min after buying · transaction	-4.23 NEAR	none found
19	h2onear.near	4.5 min · transaction	4.20 NEAR	30 s after buying · transaction	-0.63 NEAR	none found
20	wmax.near	5.0 min · transaction	15.96 NEAR	6.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.33 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of illiapolosuckin.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-23 17:07 UTC	justhoot v2	illia.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	0 Low retro	no rug	history: launch only