ILLINTENT nearly.trade

illintent.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 20.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch illintent.nearlyt….near

The largest funder's (leyzee.near) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2125 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 11.72 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: illintent.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-02 15:49:57 UTC, 29.1 min after the launch: Ghyni8pmrN1AS…6TKSt.
Outside buyers' net result: -11.72 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.61 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-02 15:20:52 UTC · block 218220403 · history: launch only
Transaction	BQ1w46XPEkKtF…LWBph
Creator	illintent.near explorer
Pool	illintent.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	12.50 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-03 00:38 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	29.1 min	29.1 min	29.1 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	15	15	15	15	15
Buyers spent	203.90 NEAR	203.90 NEAR	203.90 NEAR	203.90 NEAR	203.90 NEAR
Buyers net result	+26.27 NEAR	-11.37 NEAR	-11.71 NEAR	-11.72 NEAR	-11.74 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+4.58 NEAR	+0.12 NEAR	-0.61 NEAR	-0.61 NEAR	-0.61 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.37x	1.37x	1.37x	1.37x	1.37x
Holders	15	5	2	6	5
Top 10 holders' share	96.6%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.2% · holds	1.2% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	13.4% · 13 of 14 hold	0.6% · 4 of 14 hold	0.1% · 1 of 14 hold
Other early buyers	1.7% · 1 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	15.1% · 15 wallets	0.6% · 15 wallets	0.1% · 15 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	83.7%	98.2%	99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	96.6%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 15 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	neverekt.near	24 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	9.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.51 NEAR	pair bought within 35.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.9 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 59.8 s of alola.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
2	js1112s.near	35 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	8.6 min after buying · transaction	+1.07 NEAR	pair bought within 49.1 s of alola.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 24 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of 4fff4175970134e…82fa3 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
3	4fff4175970134e…82fa3	42 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	8.8 min after buying · transaction	+2.83 NEAR	pair bought within 42.2 s of alola.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.9 s of js1112s.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
4	supremegay.near	43 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	8.9 min after buying · transaction	-1.10 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 41.0 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.1 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5	3347dd8076331ad…52407	47 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	8.5 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 22.9 s of neverekt.near · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 12.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 25 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.6 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
6	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	54 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	6.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.67 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 7.2 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.7 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
7	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	60 s · transaction	50.00 NEAR	7.9 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 24.6 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.2 s of neverekt.near · 31 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
8	kimpet77.near	67 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	114 s after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 7.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.4 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 34.0 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
9	lambadaa.near	77 s · transaction	22.00 NEAR	9.2 min after buying · transaction	-5.69 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 43 of those launches pair bought within 7.2 s of alola.near · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 10.2 s of kimpet77.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	84 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.30 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 24.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.7 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.1 s of js1112s.near · 33 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
11	e8a162641a55288…58210	101 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	24.2 min after buying · transaction	-1.43 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 16.7 s of alola.near · 55 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.2 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 52 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 53.6 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
12	b8185e452876272…dff87	103 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.30 NEAR	pair bought within 18.8 s of alola.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.4 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.1 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
13	vasjaberegovo.tg	105 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	27.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.62 NEAR	pair bought within 2.3 s of b8185e452876272…dff87 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.4 s of kimpet77.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.6 s of d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
14	cead6cd7da2a01a…5f486	2.1 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	7.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.52 NEAR	pair bought within 43.9 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.1 s of lambadaa.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.2 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
15	candycandy.near	3.4 min · transaction	25.00 NEAR	6.9 min after buying · transaction	-6.68 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of illintent.near

None known.