ILY nearly.trade

ily.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Risk score: Low 5 / 100 issued 2026-11-06 03:09 UTC · config v0-default-1 · rules v0.1

  • +5
    The launch is set up so that the creator takes 100.00% of trades as a tax (nearly creator_bps = 10000).

v0 — weights are provisional; calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 41 % (461 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. outside buyers' net result -0.04 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 97 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

  • Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100.0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
  • Sold by: 3358580a338dd7ae92b38…4ba4e (dev).
  • Passed the threshold at 2026-11-06 03:23:58 UTC, 14.7 min after the launch: 5mx1hJneLweoU…byjim.
  • Outside buyers' net result: -0.04 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.72 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
  • Price at T+24 h: 97% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched2026-11-06 03:09:16 UTC · block 223257790 · live
TransactionqFT4yFuHAEP8Z…rbkw5
Creator3358580a338dd7ae92b383323432215219077bef71fd3298bd26e017b2e4ba4e explorer
Poolainear.nearlyops.near|ily.nearlytrade.near|10000
Dev buy0.00 NEAR
Tax optionsbuy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-06 03:23 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade2026-11-06 03:23 UTC
Price now0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.97x the peak
Outside buyers in profit0 of 1 · 0%
Last 15 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account<0.01% · 1 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side—
Early buyers in a bundle—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group—
What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

MetricT+5 minT+15 minT+30 minT+60 minT+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Dev's first sell after launch—14.7 min14.7 min14.7 min14.7 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)11111
Buyers spent1.00 NEAR1.00 NEAR1.00 NEAR1.00 NEAR1.00 NEAR
Buyers net result-0.0076 NEAR-0.04 NEAR-0.04 NEAR-0.04 NEAR-0.04 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)11111
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Insiders' net result-0.24 NEAR-0.72 NEAR-0.72 NEAR-0.72 NEAR-0.72 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer1.01x1.01x1.01x1.01x1.01x
Holders21111
Top 10 holders' share100%100%100%100%100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

HolderT+5 minT+15 minT+60 min
Dev account 1.1% · holds <0.01% · holds <0.01% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev — — —
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side — — —
Early buyers in a bundle — — —
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group — — —
Other early buyers 0.1% · 1 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold 0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)0.1% · 1 wallets0% · 1 wallets0% · 1 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)98.8%100%100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)100%100%100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged100% · 0 merged
How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 1 wallets that bought, and what links them

#WalletAfter the launchSpentFirst sellNet result at T+60Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1 b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper 4 s · transaction 1.00 NEAR 5.1 min after buying · transaction -0.04 NEAR
What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 3358580a338dd7ae92b38…4ba4e

TimeLaunchpadTokenRiskOutcomeData
2026-11-06 03:29 UTC nearly.trade idog.nearlytrade.near 15 Low no rug live