JOKER nearly.trade

joker-4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Elevated 35 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 100, sell_bps 100, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch joker-4.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 40.00 NEAR 218.4 h before the launch from 3a5bc6ac4eca6a5a9735ce4367f64e8431541328d3a72600ed72a9633f2e0ede, whose earlier launch peard-3.nearlytrade.near (made by rekttin.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction 2gEj21GAKBEhNQEAo…BrxcB, launch peard-3.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'joker' was already used 58.0 h earlier by another creator (joker-3.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch joker-3.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 23 % (810 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 84 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100.9% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: 60aed608bbdc2aa0f0e2f…ed159 (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-17 22:36:48 UTC, 129.1 min after the launch: DUHmx7k13KMvT…UMinK.
Outside buyers' net result: -4.17 NEAR · insiders' net result: -0.34 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 84% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-17 20:27:44 UTC · block 220415352 · history: launch only
Transaction	E7zZLvayKBk2p…KNCMR
Creator	60aed608bbdc2aa0f0e2f2e3f184a476bd4aff25358b4adcfd190baaea5ed159 explorer
Pool	joker-4.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-18 05:09 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-18 05:09 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.84x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	4 of 12 · 33.3%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 9 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100.9%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	125.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	10	10	10	11	12
Buyers spent	71.46 NEAR	81.42 NEAR	81.42 NEAR	92.37 NEAR	102.33 NEAR
Buyers net result	+2.32 NEAR	-0.51 NEAR	-0.59 NEAR	-1.85 NEAR	-4.17 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	100.9%
Insiders' net result	+2.43 NEAR	+1.61 NEAR	+1.58 NEAR	+1.36 NEAR	-0.34 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x
Holders	8	7	6	7	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.9% · holds	1.9% · holds	1.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	0.8% · 1 of 1 hold	1.7% · 1 of 1 hold	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	5.1% · 6 of 9 hold	2.6% · 5 of 9 hold	2.5% · 3 of 9 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	6.0% · 10 wallets	4.2% · 10 wallets	2.5% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	92.2%	93.9%	95.7%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	wrapz-z.near independent sniper	7 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.14 NEAR	pair bought within 2.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of ro52.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 558 of 1042 launches (not put in a group)
2	ro52.near	9 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	90 s after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 191 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 171 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 231 of 314 launches (not put in a group)
3	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent sniper	9 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	15.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 452 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of ro52.near · 206 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 734 of 1047 launches (not put in a group)
4	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 trading bot developer	9 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	4.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 0.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
5	30fa5c4f5bc5e32…57e92	11 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.20 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 114 of those launches pair bought within 1.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 168 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.7 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 101 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 80 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	13 s · transaction	20.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.30 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 3.5 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.1 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.1 s of wrapz-z.near · 119 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	18 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	not sold	-0.02 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 9.2 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.9 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.5 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
8	d45a2ac2ee72903…35fa6	27 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	6.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.74 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 194 of those launches pair bought within 12.4 s of alola.near · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 18.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 107 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.1 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 73 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	40 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 30.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 31.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	3a5bc6ac4eca6a5…e0ede	92 s · transaction	29.88 NEAR	57.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.78 NEAR	dev side received 146.50 NEAR from rekttin.near (a member of the dev's linked group), 214.1 min before its first buy · transaction pair bought within 51.7 s of alola.near · 15 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	bravox3.near	41.2 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	25 s after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of 60aed608bbdc2aa0f0e2f…ed159

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-10-13 01:14 UTC	nearly.trade	quant-3.nearlytrade.near	35 Elevated retro	no rug	history: launch only