JOLLY nearly.trade

jolly-4.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 25 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (2.800% per buy, 2.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch jolly-4.nearlytrade.near
+5
The name 'jolly' was already used 83.3 h earlier by another creator (jolly-3.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch jolly-3.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2525 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -0.41 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 18% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-05 21:23:53 UTC · block 218698590 · history: launch only
Transaction	7y2LxMTwRTgwq…1TzZb
Creator	jollystrat.near explorer
Pool	jolly-4.nearlytrade.near\|nearly-993927.nearlytrade.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-06 18:02 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	27	47	59	64	97
Buyers spent	0.79 NEAR	1.41 NEAR	1.91 NEAR	2.25 NEAR	4.11 NEAR
Buyers net result	+0.44 NEAR	+0.84 NEAR	+1.10 NEAR	+0.92 NEAR	-0.41 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	2.54x	3.93x	4.46x	4.46x	6.11x
Holders	27	42	53	50	26
Top 10 holders' share	66.6%	54.8%	49.9%	51.8%	94.0%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	25.8% · 18 of 18 hold	27.2% · 19 of 20 hold	26.3% · 18 of 20 hold
Other early buyers	11.1% · 9 of 9 hold	9.2% · 7 of 10 hold	9.9% · 7 of 10 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	36.9% · 27 wallets	36.5% · 30 wallets	36.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	63.1%	63.5%	63.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	66.6%	54.8%	51.8%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	95.3% · 2 merged	84.2% · 2 merged	79.9% · 2 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	colddress6080.near	33 s · transaction	0.04 NEAR	not sold	+0.11 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches pair bought within 19.7 s of neargodd.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 28.3 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.4 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
2	ef0cb6be9834d38…9d651	43 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.07 NEAR	none found
3	neargodd.near	52 s · transaction	0.05 NEAR	not sold	+0.10 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 19 of those launches pair bought within 19.7 s of colddress6080.near · 16 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.6 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.8 s of bnearr.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4	ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb	61 s · transaction	0.02 NEAR	not sold	+0.05 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 28.3 s of colddress6080.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.6 s of neargodd.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.1 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
5	c5e100aaf6dea35…d2c67	66 s · transaction	0.05 NEAR	not sold	+0.08 NEAR	none found
6	nearingyou.near	77 s · transaction	0.05 NEAR	not sold	+0.09 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches pair bought within 21.1 s of bnearr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 24.7 s of neargodd.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.1 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
7	018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35	83 s · transaction	0.04 NEAR	not sold	+0.06 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches pair bought within 22.1 s of ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 50.4 s of colddress6080.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.1 s of bnearr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
8	1eb36e40386444f…c7cc0	89 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.03 NEAR	pair bought within 47.8 s of walletneartrader.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 56.8 s of colddress6080.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	f1dc059f314d003…f34df	91 s · transaction	0.05 NEAR	not sold	+0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 39.0 s of neargodd.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 45.9 s of walletneartrader.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.7 s of colddress6080.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
10	d02a9a8805a8242…aad8c	93 s · transaction	0.02 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	none found
11	bnearr.near	98 s · transaction	0.05 NEAR	not sold	+0.05 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches pair bought within 45.8 s of neargodd.near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 15.1 s of 018cddafa1f7fe2…33a35 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.1 s of nearingyou.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
12	a61602ebdc9b583…012fc	100 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
13	c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4	100 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
14	fd5c09668cb779b…28411	102 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 1.2 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
15	7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6	104 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.2 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.2 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
16	9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607	104 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.8 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
17	7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27	106 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 1.9 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.5 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.7 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
18	177d0dba946d26e….near	119 s · transaction	0.03 NEAR	5.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.0007 NEAR	none found
19	walletneartrader.near	2.3 min · transaction	0.03 NEAR	not sold	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 45.9 s of f1dc059f314d003…f34df · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.1 s of bnearr.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 47.8 s of 1eb36e40386444f…c7cc0 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	886fd94398f173c…35c2c	2.4 min · transaction	0.0060 NEAR	not sold	+0.0042 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 26 of those launches pair bought within 34.8 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.7 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 37.3 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of jollystrat.near

None known.