Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): the creator account was created 5 min before the launch; it received 1.00 NEAR 4 min before the launch (largest transfer from intents.near).
Trade tax 4.00% buy / 4.00% sell; after the platform's 40.00% cut the creator gets 60.00% of it (2.400% per buy, 2.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 4000).
The creator account was created 5 min before the launch, and its largest transfer before the launch (1.00 NEAR, 4 min before) came from intents.near: the NEAR Intents contract or a bridge, which forward funds from other chains and exchanges, so the transfer does not show the original sender.
v2r signals (weights fitted on launch history before the split date), two expert rules whose points are set by hand (a creator name that resembles a notable account; a fresh account funded through Intents or an exchange) and the creator's fee, whose points are an expert rule too: 8 points per 1 % of the trade that goes to the creator, at most 40 (not fitted). The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 19 % (248 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
Pending.Decided from the T+60 min snapshot, and from the T+24 h snapshot when the first one shows no rug.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Outside buyers' net result: -0.10 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-12T17:40 UTC with config v2l-1; not final until T+24 h.
buy 4.00% · sell 4.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 15:45 UTC
25out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
0
0 of 1 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
98
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-12 16:45 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.98x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
0 of 1 · 0%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
—
—
—
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
1
1
1
1
Buyers spent
1.00 NEAR
1.00 NEAR
1.00 NEAR
1.00 NEAR
Buyers net result
-0.04 NEAR
-0.10 NEAR
-0.10 NEAR
-0.10 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
—
—
—
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
1.00x
Holders
1
0
0
0
Top 10 holders' share
100%
—
—
—
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
—
—
—
Other early buyers
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
0% · 0 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
0.1% · 1 wallets
0% · 1 wallets
0% · 1 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
99.9%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
—
—
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
—
—
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 1 wallets that bought, and what links them
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
What the links mean
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.