In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
The largest funder's (3477fd7cc7cb9ebfd26e69d7902ccef90316ce23323efb4ecf51e3dd65c00424) history before 2026-09-22 is not loaded yet, so the history-based signals may be incomplete.
It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 1 % (201 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
Outcome rug within 24 h
No rug.insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.
Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 2; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: +1776.56 NEAR · insiders' net result: -7.34 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 29% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-09-28 04:49:40 UTC · block 217585431 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC
No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-30 14:30 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.
Facts now
Last trade
2026-10-30 14:30 UTC
Price now
1.27x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.06x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
342 of 779 · 43.9%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
1.4% · 1 of 1 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
0% · 0 of 6 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
—
—
—
—
0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
—
Buyers (other than the insiders)
10
17
42
145
740
Buyers spent
339.10 NEAR
614.45 NEAR
1,220.32 NEAR
2,601.27 NEAR
23,316.26 NEAR
Buyers net result
+104.76 NEAR
+72.85 NEAR
+292.92 NEAR
+608.07 NEAR
+1,776.56 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
2
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
—
—
—
—
0%
Insiders' net result
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
0.00 NEAR
-7.34 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.74x
2.18x
2.71x
5.33x
22.70x
Holders
11
12
35
117
432
Top 10 holders' share
100.0%
99.0%
64.4%
44.5%
47.4%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
6.5% · 3 of 3 hold
8.0% · 3 of 6 hold
3.4% · 3 of 6 hold
Other early buyers
18.0% · 7 of 7 hold
13.9% · 8 of 11 hold
11.6% · 12 of 24 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
24.5% · 10 wallets
21.9% · 17 wallets
15.1% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
75.5%
78.1%
85.0%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100.0%
99.0%
44.5%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100.0% · 0 merged
99.0% · 0 merged
44.5% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.