KCC nearly.trade

kcc.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Risk score: Elevated 45 / 100 issued 2026-11-09 16:19 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+25
Fresh creator setup (2 of 3): the creator account was created 6 min before the launch; it received 100.00 NEAR 3 min before the launch (largest transfer from intents.near).
Evidence: transaction CoGa8MHCoLVo9U2ah…6PUu5, transaction 5d183CubwLXpi7gs7…P2A6T
+20
The launch is set up so that the creator takes 20.00% of trades as a tax (nearly creator_bps = 2000).
Evidence: launch kcc.nearlytrade.near

v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 37 % (312 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 12.28 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 3; they sold 100.0% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: agent420.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-11-09 17:00:47 UTC, 41.3 min after the launch: 6tGtuZ9EdjBM6…NYa43.
Received tokens from the dev: wallet.intear.near, dex-aggregator.intear.near.
Outside buyers' net result: -12.28 NEAR · insiders' net result: -1.35 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-10T16:19 UTC with config v1-fit-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-11-09 16:19:28 UTC · block 223790947 · live
Transaction	BowJnKRPAxcwa…t5mFj
Creator	agent420.near explorer
Pool	kcc.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	40.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 20.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-10 05:57 UTC
Price now	0.99x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.61x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	2 of 12 · 16.7%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	<0.01% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	<0.01% · 1 of 9 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100.0%	100.0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	41.3 min	41.3 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	9	9	10	11	12
Buyers spent	88.50 NEAR	88.50 NEAR	119.50 NEAR	124.50 NEAR	154.50 NEAR
Buyers net result	-2.87 NEAR	-2.95 NEAR	+0.40 NEAR	-12.28 NEAR	-13.47 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	3	3
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	100.0%	100.0%
Insiders' net result	+1.29 NEAR	+5.86 NEAR	+41.14 NEAR	-1.35 NEAR	-1.35 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.26x	1.26x	1.48x	1.63x	1.63x
Holders	6	2	3	3	2
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	<0.01% · holds	4.2% · holds	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	<0.01% · 2 of 2 hold
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1.1% · 6 of 9 hold	0.1% · 2 of 9 hold	<0.01% · 1 of 9 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	0.2% · 1 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	1.1% · 9 wallets	0.1% · 9 wallets	0.2% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	98.9%	95.7%	99.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged	100% · 0 merged

The dev sent tokens to other wallets: those are in the "got tokens from the dev" row, not in the dev's own.

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	dolph.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 179 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 141 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
2	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	4 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.74 NEAR	pair bought within 2.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
3	jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 196 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
4	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	4 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	5.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.11 NEAR	pair bought within 2.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 440 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 192 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
5	yazaplakal.send….near bot_wallet	4 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	5.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.01 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of trade.sendler-b.near · 62 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	trade.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of dolph.sendler-b.near · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 62 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 72 of 129 launches (not put in a group)
7	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	6 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	5.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.04 NEAR	pair bought within 2.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 451 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
8	56c9a6ef438223b….near	30 s · transaction	72.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-2.01 NEAR	pair bought within 25.7 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 23.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 64 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 25.7 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
9	alola.near	40 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.15 NEAR	pair bought within 33.7 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.6 s of wrapz-z.near · 138 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
10	narrownook4299.near	22.7 min · transaction	33.00 NEAR	19.8 min after buying · transaction	-8.39 NEAR	none found
11	romanx.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	34.9 min · transaction	3.00 NEAR	not sold	-1.16 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of agent420.near

None known.