KIZUNA nearly.trade

kizuna.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 70.00% of it (1.400% per buy, 1.400% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 3000).
Evidence: launch kizuna.nearlytrade.near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 22 % (2345 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired by T+24 h, below the 80 % threshold.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 0% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -48.70 NEAR · insiders' net result: +1.32 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 45% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-03 16:24:07 UTC · block 218374069 · history: launch only
Transaction	4vESMYCzq41B4…JC1oo
Creator	kizuna0n.near explorer
Pool	kizuna.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	10.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:57 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-04 12:59 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	27	55	66	73	77
Buyers spent	297.74 NEAR	693.72 NEAR	962.40 NEAR	1,046.01 NEAR	1,048.89 NEAR
Buyers net result	+76.16 NEAR	+171.91 NEAR	+1.74 NEAR	+16.59 NEAR	-48.70 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Insiders' net result	+6.31 NEAR	+10.38 NEAR	+4.50 NEAR	+5.46 NEAR	+1.32 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.64x	2.51x	2.51x	2.51x	2.51x
Holders	28	49	31	38	23
Top 10 holders' share	62.3%	49.5%	71.8%	69.0%	95.2%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0.9% · holds	0.9% · holds	0.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	15.3% · 19 of 19 hold	9.8% · 15 of 19 hold	3.6% · 5 of 19 hold
Other early buyers	6.3% · 8 of 8 hold	8.9% · 11 of 11 hold	6.6% · 9 of 11 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	21.6% · 27 wallets	18.7% · 30 wallets	10.2% · 30 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	77.5%	80.4%	88.8%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	62.3%	49.5%	69.0%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	89.5% · 2 merged	60.5% · 2 merged	69.0% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	19 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	10.9 min after buying · transaction	+1.72 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 41.5 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.9 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
2	d1de82541ee4575…a191b	34 s · transaction	1.98 NEAR	not sold	+1.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 58 of those launches pair bought within 26.5 s of alola.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 14.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence and 8 more pairs · all pairs
3	8033c5e8d587f59…817b7	38 s · transaction	4.95 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	+4.69 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 48 of those launches pair bought within 4.3 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 18 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.2 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.2 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
4	shikanoko.near	39 s · transaction	12.00 NEAR	not sold	+5.84 NEAR	none found
5	cremia.near	43 s · transaction	11.00 NEAR	not sold	+5.00 NEAR	none found
6	snowdrop7.near	50 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+4.27 NEAR	none found
7	fd5c09668cb779b…28411	50 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	14.4 min after buying · transaction	+4.76 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4	50 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	14.2 min after buying · transaction	+6.97 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	a61602ebdc9b583…012fc	50 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	14.2 min after buying · transaction	+7.06 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
10	7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6	51 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	14.3 min after buying · transaction	+4.53 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 0.6 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of fd5c09668cb779b…28411 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
11	9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607	52 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	14.4 min after buying · transaction	+4.03 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 29 of those launches pair bought within 1.3 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.9 s of c75d6d60e9aebcb…db3c4 · 29 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12	7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27	55 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	13.9 min after buying · transaction	+7.07 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 28 of those launches pair bought within 2.5 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 3.8 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.3 s of a61602ebdc9b583…012fc · 28 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
13	886fd94398f173c…35c2c	58 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	13.9 min after buying · transaction	+6.25 NEAR	group one of 8 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 26 of those launches pair bought within 3.8 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 6.3 s of 9a46d7f36dfa77a…79607 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 7.6 s of 7f67f9b532d1560…cccc6 · 26 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
14	alola.near	60 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	14.4 min after buying · transaction	+0.29 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 41.5 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.5 s of d1de82541ee4575…a191b · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.7 s of 7ed179cee50dad9…3cd27 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 9 more pairs · all pairs
15	meteorrrr.near	65 s · transaction	30.00 NEAR	13.5 min after buying · transaction	+11.07 NEAR	pair bought within 4.9 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.4 s of unknownchain.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 27.1 s of 8033c5e8d587f59…817b7 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs
16	unknownchain.near	75 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.92 NEAR	pair bought within 9.4 s of meteorrrr.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
17	office28.near	78 s · transaction	25.00 NEAR	11.2 min after buying · transaction	+10.97 NEAR	none found
18	bodro94.near	88 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	not sold	+1.07 NEAR	none found
19	ddd677c8455ff08…63c01	101 s · transaction	14.35 NEAR	13.2 min after buying · transaction	+1.01 NEAR	pair bought within 40.5 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence
20	148f2dedf295a55…50326	102 s · transaction	9.00 NEAR	not sold	+0.77 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of kizuna0n.near

None known.