LOADSTONE nearly.trade

loadstone.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: Low 20 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.

+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 20.00% cut the creator gets 80.00% of it (0.800% per buy, 0.800% per sell; creator_bps 10000, platform_bps 2000).
Evidence: launch loadstone.nearlyt….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 15 % (1068 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders had sold 0.0 % of what they acquired, below the 80 % threshold; the price held at 56 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 102.6% of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Sold by: loadstone.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-09-29 15:32:22 UTC, 61.4 min after the launch: E8bj9rMdjeLKS…Y1pXM.
Outside buyers' net result: -21.62 NEAR · insiders' net result: +5.69 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 56% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-09-29 14:30:59 UTC · block 217789155 · history: launch only
Transaction	cZ7GxpfDeheG6…vxfSS
Creator	loadstone.near explorer
Pool	loadstone.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 100.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

Live state: history incomplete before 2026-10-30.

Why there is no number

This launch happened before our live data starts; the trades after its first 24 hours up to that day are missing, so no number is shown. Only the facts that do not need them are below. Why.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-09-29 18:07 UTC (in the launch's first 24 hours; nothing seen since in our live data)
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0 · no trade seen in our live data

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	102.6%
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	61.4 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)	13	14	14	28	28
Buyers spent	89.04 NEAR	94.04 NEAR	94.04 NEAR	446.34 NEAR	446.34 NEAR
Buyers net result	-3.13 NEAR	-3.50 NEAR	-3.59 NEAR	+10.61 NEAR	-21.62 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	0%	0%	0%	0%	102.6%
Insiders' net result	+0.42 NEAR	+0.37 NEAR	+0.04 NEAR	+6.68 NEAR	+5.69 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.17x	1.17x	1.17x	1.68x	1.68x
Holders	7	4	4	8	4
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	1.9% · holds	1.9% · holds	1.9% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	1.1% · 4 of 11 hold	0.1% · 1 of 11 hold	0% · 0 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	0.1% · 1 of 2 hold	0.5% · 1 of 3 hold	11.8% · 4 of 17 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	1.2% · 13 wallets	0.5% · 14 wallets	11.8% · 28 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	96.9%	97.6%	86.3%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 1 merged	100% · 1 merged	100% · 0 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 20 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	54 s · transaction	2.50 NEAR	7.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.07 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 3.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.6 s of barrey.near · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.4 s of supremegay.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
2	e8a162641a55288…58210	57 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	3.1 min after buying · transaction	+0.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 145 of those launches pair bought within 3.3 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 68 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 20.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
3	darknes.near	70 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 6.9 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.4 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 16.7 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
4	3347dd8076331ad…52407	77 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	2.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.0062 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 20.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 20 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.3 s of alola.near · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of supremegay.near · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
5	barrey.near	93 s · transaction	4.96 NEAR	7.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.34 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 47 of those launches pair bought within 38.2 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.6 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 14 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.0 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
6	supremegay.near	97 s · transaction	39.68 NEAR	2.2 min after buying · transaction	+0.19 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 49 of those launches pair bought within 34.4 s of alola.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 43.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 12 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
7	579b7294974b54d…30203	98 s · transaction	9.00 NEAR	3.0 min after buying · transaction	-1.03 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 55 of those launches pair bought within 33.2 s of alola.near · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.0 s of barrey.near · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 41.3 s of e8a162641a55288…58210 · 13 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	80e23beba480a94…63685	2.0 min · transaction	0.50 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.06 NEAR	pair bought within 24.3 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 29.3 s of barrey.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
9	alola.near	2.2 min · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 38.2 s of barrey.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 54.3 s of 3347dd8076331ad…52407 · 19 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 33.2 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 17 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10	997a46b511ebd7c…6c0b1	2.3 min · transaction	4.96 NEAR	5.6 min after buying · transaction	-0.72 NEAR	pair bought within 38.6 s of 579b7294974b54d…30203 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 5.4 s of alola.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 39.8 s of supremegay.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
11	lowlibrary565.near	2.4 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.4 min after buying · transaction	-0.72 NEAR	none found
12	629b89cdea5186a…9c580	2.4 min · transaction	0.99 NEAR	4.7 min after buying · transaction	-0.15 NEAR	none found
13	tuyulz.near	2.8 min · transaction	4.95 NEAR	64 s after buying · transaction	-0.53 NEAR	pair bought within 38.6 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence
14	fullapp1002.near	10.6 min · transaction	5.00 NEAR	46.9 min after buying · transaction	+3.05 NEAR	none found
15	squareport5786.near	37.2 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	19.4 min after buying · transaction	+5.68 NEAR	none found
16	steepnook555.near	38.6 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	18.8 min after buying · transaction	+5.76 NEAR	none found
17	finelemon1965.near	38.7 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	19.0 min after buying · transaction	+2.64 NEAR	none found
18	toughmouse3348.near	38.9 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	18.8 min after buying · transaction	+4.67 NEAR	none found
19	openbank5669.near	38.9 min · transaction	10.00 NEAR	18.8 min after buying · transaction	+4.10 NEAR	none found
20	smartward9463.near	39.5 min · transaction	15.00 NEAR	18.2 min after buying · transaction	+5.15 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of loadstone.near

None known.