In-sample: this launch is older than the data the v1 weights were fitted on, so its score is not an out-of-sample result.
+20
Trade tax 1.00% buy / 1.00% sell; after the platform's 30.00% cut the creator gets 32.90% of it (0.329% per buy, 0.329% per sell; creator_bps 4700, platform_bps 3000).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-11 08:38:43 UTC, 91.6 min after the launch: 8xCaWhU4nhYbs…SwhJD.
Outside buyers' net result: -3.35 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.38 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 87% of its peak.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.
Launch
Launched
2026-10-11 07:07:09 UTC · block 219491200 · history: launch only
buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 47.00%
Live state not a forecast · as of 19:46 UTC
24out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
Buyers in profit
14
1 of 7 outside buyers
Buy pressure
0
buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min
Price vs peak
83
the last price against the highest price since the launch
Activity
0
0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20)
Facts now
Last trade
2026-11-13 12:52 UTC
Price now
0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.83x the peak
Outside buyers in profit
1 of 7 · 14.3%
Last 15 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min
0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour
0
Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Dev account
0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
<0.01% · 1 of 5 hold
What these facts are
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
What happened after the launch
Metric
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+30 min
T+60 min
T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
285.0%
Dev's first sell after launch
—
—
—
—
91.6 min
Buyers (other than the insiders)
5
5
6
6
7
Buyers spent
106.00 NEAR
106.00 NEAR
107.00 NEAR
107.00 NEAR
108.00 NEAR
Buyers net result
-1.80 NEAR
-3.03 NEAR
-2.59 NEAR
-2.59 NEAR
-3.35 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)
1
1
1
1
1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)
0%
0%
0%
0%
285.0%
Insiders' net result
-0.01 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
-0.02 NEAR
+0.38 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer
1.18x
1.18x
1.18x
1.18x
1.18x
Holders
5
4
5
5
6
Top 10 holders' share
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far
Holder
T+5 min
T+15 min
T+60 min
Dev account
0.0% · holds
0.0% · holds
0.0% · holds
Wallets that got tokens from the dev
—
—
—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side
—
—
—
Early buyers in a bundle
—
—
—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group
2.4% · 4 of 5 hold
2.3% · 3 of 5 hold
2.3% · 3 of 5 hold
Other early buyers
—
—
0.1% · 1 of 1 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)
2.4% · 5 wallets
2.3% · 5 wallets
2.4% · 6 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)
97.5%
97.7%
97.5%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)
100%
100%
100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
100% · 0 merged
How to read the table
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
Early buyers the first 6 wallets that bought, and what links them
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.