MERCH nearly.trade

merch.nearlytrade.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Retroactive card. This card was computed retroactively as of the launch time (rules v1) — it is not a forecast published at the time.

Risk score: High 80 / 100 retro computed 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+50
2 of the 2 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (0 by the creator and 2 by accounts linked to him); smoothed rug share 60%.
Evidence: launch outlayer.nearlytr….near, launch ping-2.nearlytrade.near
+20
Trade tax 2.00% buy / 2.00% sell; the creator's share of that tax is 33.00% (nearly tax options: buy_bps 200, sell_bps 200, creator_bps 3300).
Evidence: launch merch.nearlytrade.near
+10
Received 38.40 NEAR 2 min before the launch from multiagencyowner.near, whose earlier launch outlayer.nearlytrade.near (made by outlayer-owner.near, linked to him) ended as a rug.
Evidence: transaction BCSHcPzePaeT8fnNR…QiLwX, launch outlayer.nearlytr….near

It uses only what was knowable at the launch time. It is a rebuildable analysis, not a prediction that was made then. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 32 % (693 launches) (as of the launch, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

Rug — fast (by T+60 min). Outside buyers lost 10.35 NEAR.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold 100% of what they acquired (at T+60 min).
Sold by: nearmerchowner.near (dev).
Passed the threshold at 2026-10-22 17:48:17 UTC, 71 s after the launch: HJMk6s57ZQP5V…MYiYX.
Outside buyers' net result: -10.35 NEAR · insiders' net result: +2.12 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-08T18:10 UTC with config v0-default-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-10-22 17:47:06 UTC · block 221124128 · history: launch only
Transaction	Cr2qLhXkoqK3j…pUWvJ
Creator	nearmerchowner.near explorer
Pool	merch.nearlytrade.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	20.00 NEAR
Tax options	buy 2.00% · sell 2.00% · creator's share of the tax 33.00%

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-10-22 23:47 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-10-22 23:47 UTC
Price now	0.98x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.81x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	6 of 11 · 54.5%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	4.9% · 1 of 11 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Dev's first sell after launch	71 s	71 s	71 s	71 s	71 s
Buyers (other than the insiders)	11	11	11	11	11
Buyers spent	95.88 NEAR	95.88 NEAR	95.88 NEAR	95.88 NEAR	95.88 NEAR
Buyers net result	-9.70 NEAR	-9.70 NEAR	-9.92 NEAR	-10.35 NEAR	-10.79 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Insiders' net result	+2.12 NEAR	+2.12 NEAR	+2.12 NEAR	+2.12 NEAR	+2.12 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x	1.21x
Holders	3	3	3	1	0
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	—

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	5.5% · 4 of 11 hold	5.5% · 4 of 11 hold	5.4% · 2 of 11 hold
Other early buyers	—	—	—
All early buyers (the six rows above)	5.5% · 11 wallets	5.5% · 11 wallets	5.4% · 11 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	94.5%	94.5%	94.6%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 11 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	onlyrekt.near	3 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	29 s after buying · transaction	+0.32 NEAR	pair bought within 0.6 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 118 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 113 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.6 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 123 of 395 launches (not put in a group)
2	b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	72 s after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
3	bright-panda-28….near bot_wallet	4 s · transaction	2.00 NEAR	59 s after buying · transaction	+0.21 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 110 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 90 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 85 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 125 of 223 launches (not put in a group)
4	c8bde0e9209ac73…01899	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	69 s after buying · transaction	+0.02 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 526 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 1030 of 1414 launches (not put in a group)
5	jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	4 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	36.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.09 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 251 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 189 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 146 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
6	tyty.sendler-b.near bot_wallet	4 s · transaction	0.50 NEAR	59 s after buying · transaction	+0.05 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 307 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 249 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 0.0 s of jopka.sendler-b.near · 146 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 396 of 533 launches (not put in a group)
7	976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8	6 s · transaction	20.38 NEAR	67 s after buying · transaction	+0.28 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 140 of those launches pair bought within 1.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 194 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 158 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.8 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 93 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
8	5d194c7b6c82ebe…2b4cc	15 s · transaction	6.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.70 NEAR	group one of 6 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 69 of those launches pair bought within 11.3 s of tyty.sendler-b.near · 79 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 11.3 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 71 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 9.5 s of 976b2ad5b28f766…93fe8 · 46 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
9	70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b	21 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	2.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.13 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 212 of those launches pair bought within 17.4 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 254 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.4 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 142 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of alola.near · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
10	alola.near	24 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.3 min after buying · transaction	-0.14 NEAR	group one of 17 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 241 of those launches pair bought within 19.8 s of b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 19.8 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 160 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 2.4 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 103 launches together · their buy · evidence and 7 more pairs · all pairs
11	telerman.near	26 s · transaction	60.00 NEAR	not sold	-10.19 NEAR	pair bought within 2.5 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 22.3 s of c8bde0e9209ac73…01899 · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 4.9 s of 70b40f9d14ce134…aaa3b · 4 launches together · their buy · evidence and 1 more pairs · all pairs

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of nearmerchowner.near

None known.