mlc-2.v2-launchpad.just….near justhoot v2

mlc-2.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near

Risk card risk of a rug within 24 h

Risk score: Elevated 35 / 100 issued 2026-11-09 19:20 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0

+30
1 of the 1 earlier launches that were already decided at launch time ended as a rug (1 by the creator); smoothed rug share 47%.
Evidence: launch ia.v2-launchpad.j….near
+5
The name 'mlc' was already used 98 min earlier by another creator (mlc.nearlytrade.near).
Evidence: launch mlc.nearlytrade.near

v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.

Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 37 % (301 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.

Outcome rug within 24 h

No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.

Insiders (the dev and the wallets the dev sent tokens to): 1; they sold — of what they acquired (at T+24 h).
Outside buyers' net result: -13.46 NEAR · insiders' net result: +0.00 NEAR (a fact, not a condition).
Price at T+24 h: 70% of its peak.

A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-10T19:20 UTC with config v1-fit-1.

Launch

Launched	2026-11-09 19:19:59 UTC · block 223809330 · live
Transaction	Ed2cBCshAYTT1…z7NGQ
Creator	omethda.near explorer
Pool	mlc-2.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near\|wrap.near\|10000
Dev buy	0.00 NEAR

Live state not a forecast · as of 14:45 UTC

No trading · the last trade was 2026-11-11 04:57 UTC. No number is shown when nothing has traded for 24 hours. Formula ls-2 · how it is built.

Facts now

Last trade	2026-11-11 04:57 UTC
Price now	1.02x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.69x the peak
Outside buyers in profit	2 of 18 · 11.1%
Last 15 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Last 60 min	0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR)
Buyers in the last hour	0

Who still holds the supply now, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Dev account	0% · 0 of 1 hold
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	0% · 0 of 12 hold

What these facts are

Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.

What happened after the launch

Metric	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+30 min	T+60 min	T+24 h
Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Dev's first sell after launch	—	—	—	—	—
Buyers (other than the insiders)	14	14	14	14	17
Buyers spent	384.99 NEAR	384.99 NEAR	384.99 NEAR	384.99 NEAR	401.35 NEAR
Buyers net result	-10.35 NEAR	-12.04 NEAR	-12.83 NEAR	-13.17 NEAR	-13.46 NEAR
Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to)	1	1	1	1	1
Insiders sold (share of what they acquired)	—	—	—	—	—
Insiders' net result	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR	0.00 NEAR
Highest price vs first buyer	1.47x	1.47x	1.47x	1.47x	1.47x
Holders	9	8	6	2	2
Top 10 holders' share	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.

Who holds the supply tokens held, as a share of the tokens minted so far

Holder	T+5 min	T+15 min	T+60 min
Dev account	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing	0% · holds nothing
Wallets that got tokens from the dev	—	—	—
Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side	—	—	—
Early buyers in a bundle	—	—	—
Early buyers in a pair or a trader group	2.8% · 7 of 12 hold	1.5% · 6 of 12 hold	0.1% · 2 of 12 hold
Other early buyers	0.4% · 2 of 2 hold	0.4% · 2 of 2 hold	0% · 0 of 2 hold
All early buyers (the six rows above)	3.2% · 14 wallets	1.9% · 14 wallets	0.1% · 14 wallets
Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers)	96.8%	98.1%	99.9%
Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets)	100%	100%	100%
Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder	100% · 2 merged	100% · 2 merged	100% · 1 merged

How to read the table

A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.

Early buyers the first 14 wallets that bought, and what links them

#	Wallet	After the launch	Spent	First sell	Net result at T+60	Links (recorded transfers and trades)
1	cockis.near	8 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	not sold	-0.01 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 64 of those launches pair bought within 0.0 s of wrapz-z.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of phbo.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.4 s of hooting.near · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
2	wrapz-z.near independent_sniper	8 s · transaction	5.00 NEAR	2.5 min after buying · transaction	+1.46 NEAR	pair bought within 0.0 s of cockis.near · 197 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.2 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of phbo.near · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
3	56c9a6ef438223b….near	21 s · transaction	268.00 NEAR	3.6 min after buying · transaction	-6.05 NEAR	pair bought within 13.2 s of wrapz-z.near · 61 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 46.9 s of alola.near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 13.2 s of cockis.near · 39 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
4	phbo.near	25 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	38.3 min after buying · transaction	-2.54 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 53 of those launches pair bought within 17.3 s of wrapz-z.near · 50 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 17.3 s of cockis.near · 48 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.9 s of alola.near · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence and 5 more pairs · all pairs
5	hybrid.user.int….near	34 s · transaction	44.55 NEAR	99 s after buying · transaction	-0.47 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 8 of those launches pair bought within 33.7 s of alola.near · 11 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 26.4 s of cockis.near · 7 launches together · their buy · evidence and 4 more pairs · all pairs
6	s3m0n.tg	44 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	24.0 min after buying · transaction	-2.68 NEAR	pair bought within 24.2 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 35.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 3 launches together · their buy · evidence
7	toxic-jeet.user….near	46 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	34 s after buying · transaction	-0.41 NEAR	group one of 3 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 6 of those launches pair bought within 12.2 s of hybrid.user.int….near · 6 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.4 s of phbo.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 21.5 s of alola.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
8	darkoasis5043.near	58 s · transaction	10.00 NEAR	2.9 min after buying · transaction	+0.07 NEAR	pair bought within 10.2 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 36.7 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 49.9 s of wrapz-z.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
9	hooting.near	59 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	6.8 min after buying · transaction	-0.26 NEAR	pair bought within 51.4 s of cockis.near · 40 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 51.4 s of wrapz-z.near · 23 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.7 s of alola.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 3 more pairs · all pairs
10	shortgirl.user.….near	67 s · transaction	9.90 NEAR	75 s after buying · transaction	-0.62 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 12 of those launches pair bought within 38.3 s of fiery_spire1.us….near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 1.5 s of alola.near · 8 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 58.7 s of cockis.near · 5 launches together · their buy · evidence and 2 more pairs · all pairs
11	alola.near	68 s · transaction	1.00 NEAR	30.2 min after buying · transaction	-0.30 NEAR	pair bought within 46.9 s of 56c9a6ef438223b….near · 56 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 42.9 s of phbo.near · 47 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 8.7 s of hooting.near · 22 launches together · their buy · evidence and 6 more pairs · all pairs
12	fiery_spire1.us….near	105 s · transaction	8.29 NEAR	43 s after buying · transaction	-0.65 NEAR	group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 11 of those launches pair bought within 36.9 s of alola.near · 10 launches together · their buy · evidence pair bought within 38.3 s of shortgirl.user.….near · 9 launches together · their buy · evidence
13	frozen_sentinel….near	2.8 min · transaction	1.43 NEAR	31.1 min after buying · transaction	-0.46 NEAR	none found
14	ghost-spark-245….near	4.0 min · transaction	4.92 NEAR	33.5 min after buying · transaction	-0.25 NEAR	none found

What the links mean

Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.

Other launches of omethda.near

Time	Launchpad	Token	Risk	Outcome	Data
2026-11-06 03:07 UTC	justhoot v2	ia.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	35 Elevated	rug	live
2026-11-09 19:56 UTC	justhoot v2	kdib.v2-launchpad.justhoot.near	30 Elevated	no rug	live