mlc.nearlytrade.near
Risk score: Low 5 / 100 issued 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0
v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 37 % (307 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
No rug. insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing; insiders' sold share unknown and the insiders sold nothing by T+24 h.
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-10T17:41 UTC with config v1-fit-1.
| Launched | 2026-11-09 17:41:34 UTC · block 223799294 · live |
|---|---|
| Transaction | JCpq9Dhn3bRUv…cbTJF |
| Creator | 9aa8db17b5d6b4b5e168eb27625c0efd56dc215b1208991a3382587c7c50109d explorer |
| Pool | mlc.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000 |
| Dev buy | 0.00 NEAR |
| Tax options | buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00% |
12 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
| Buyers in profit | 35 | 62 of 175 outside buyers |
|---|---|---|
| Buy pressure | 0 | buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min |
| Price vs peak | 14 | the last price against the highest price since the launch |
| Activity | 0 | 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20) |
| Last trade | 2026-11-13 03:39 UTC |
|---|---|
| Price now | 1.68x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.14x the peak |
| Outside buyers in profit | 62 of 175 · 35.4% |
| Last 15 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Last 60 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Buyers in the last hour | 0 |
| Dev account | 0% · 0 of 1 hold |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 3.4% · 5 of 19 hold |
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
| Metric | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+30 min | T+60 min | T+24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dev's first sell after launch | — | — | — | — | — |
| Buyers (other than the insiders) | 11 | 25 | 28 | 28 | 174 |
| Buyers spent | 241.30 NEAR | 634.44 NEAR | 704.78 NEAR | 704.78 NEAR | 9,166.22 NEAR |
| Buyers net result | +38.54 NEAR | +73.56 NEAR | +64.26 NEAR | +53.11 NEAR | -79.16 NEAR |
| Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Insiders sold (share of what they acquired) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insiders' net result | 0.00 NEAR | 0.00 NEAR | 0.00 NEAR | 0.00 NEAR | 0.00 NEAR |
| Highest price vs first buyer | 1.48x | 1.68x | 1.92x | 1.92x | 11.96x |
| Holders | 9 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 49 |
| Top 10 holders' share | 100% | 95.5% | 99.2% | 99.9% | 74.8% |
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
| Holder | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+60 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dev account | 0% · holds nothing | 0% · holds nothing | 0% · holds nothing |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — | — | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 16.3% · 8 of 10 hold | 18.3% · 10 of 19 hold | 18.0% · 10 of 19 hold |
| Other early buyers | 0.7% · 1 of 1 hold | 5.3% · 6 of 6 hold | 3.8% · 4 of 9 hold |
| All early buyers (the six rows above) | 17.0% · 11 wallets | 23.6% · 25 wallets | 21.8% · 28 wallets |
| Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers) | 83.0% | 76.3% | 78.2% |
| Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets) | 100% | 95.5% | 99.9% |
| Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder | 100% · 0 merged | 99.7% · 1 merged | 100.0% · 1 merged |
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
| # | Wallet | After the launch | Spent | First sell | Net result at T+60 | Links (recorded transfers and trades) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | wrapz-z.near independent_sniper | 3 s · transaction | 5.00 NEAR | 52 s after buying · transaction | +1.85 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 557 of 1039 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 2 | yazaplakal.send….near bot_wallet | 3 s · transaction | 0.60 NEAR | 93 s after buying · transaction | +0.23 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 3 | trade.sendler-b.near bot_wallet | 3 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 5.5 min after buying · transaction | -0.03 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 72 of 129 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 4 | jopka.sendler-b.near bot_wallet | 3 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 5.5 min after buying · transaction | -0.03 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 294 of 644 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 5 | b4adf54a4ccc38c…70486 independent_sniper | 3 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | not sold | +0.57 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 733 of 1044 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 6 | dolph.sendler-b.near bot_wallet | 3 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | 114 s after buying · transaction | +0.16 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
early buyer in 212 of 335 launches (not put in a group)
|
| 7 | 56c9a6ef438223b….near | 24 s · transaction | 196.00 NEAR | 5.0 min after buying · transaction | -6.66 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 8 | franky.user.int….near | 32 s · transaction | 19.80 NEAR | 17 s after buying · transaction | -0.74 NEAR |
and 5 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 9 | alola.near | 41 s · transaction | 1.00 NEAR | not sold | +0.07 NEAR |
and 6 more pairs · all pairs
|
| 10 | 98a587a6d9d71e6…578e1 | 70 s · transaction | 5.00 NEAR | 35.6 min after buying · transaction | +0.54 NEAR | |
| 11 | s3m0n.tg | 3.5 min · transaction | 20.00 NEAR | 109 s after buying · transaction | +4.96 NEAR | none found |
| 12 | 3024eac17eb7993…234cc | 10.3 min · transaction | 27.89 NEAR | 3.3 min after buying · transaction | +5.96 NEAR | |
| 13 | fuck_you_all.us….near | 10.4 min · transaction | 4.95 NEAR | 2.2 min after buying · transaction | +0.47 NEAR | |
| 14 | 1d2309fc71e7ffa…290d9 | 10.7 min · transaction | 27.92 NEAR | 3.1 min after buying · transaction | +6.82 NEAR | |
| 15 | toxic_sentinel.….near | 11.2 min · transaction | 20.00 NEAR | 8.0 min after buying · transaction | +2.67 NEAR | none found |
| 16 | vikin.near | 11.3 min · transaction | 30.00 NEAR | 7.5 min after buying · transaction | +13.72 NEAR | none found |
| 17 | fiery_spire.use….near | 12.7 min · transaction | 2.52 NEAR | 15.2 min after buying · transaction | +0.77 NEAR | none found |
| 18 | sarthakz.near | 12.8 min · transaction | 5.00 NEAR | 5.5 min after buying · transaction | +2.31 NEAR | none found |
| 19 | colddress6080.near | 13.4 min · transaction | 50.00 NEAR | not sold | +10.74 NEAR |
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 24 of those launches
|
| 20 | hooting.near | 13.4 min · transaction | 5.00 NEAR | 16.7 min after buying · transaction | +0.87 NEAR | none found |
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.
| Time | Launchpad | Token | Risk | Outcome | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 04:12 UTC | nearly.trade | batman-4.nearlytrade.near | 5 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-27 10:45 UTC | nearly.trade | nrr-5.nearlytrade.near | 5 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 15:38 UTC | nearly.trade | ftr.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-11-09 17:53 UTC | nearly.trade | kim-2.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low | no rug | live |
| 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC | nearly.trade | elon-2.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low | no rug | live |
| 2026-11-10 11:51 UTC | nearly.trade | mmli-2.nearlytrade.near | 25 Low | rug | live |