elon-2.nearlytrade.near
Risk score: Low 0 / 100 issued 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC · config v1-fit-1 · rules v1.0
No risk signal fired for this launch.
v1 — weights fitted on launch history. The score ranks risk; it is not a probability. Calibration in progress. Computed from what was known at launch time and frozen: it never changes. How it works.
Market context: Rug rate, last 14 days: 38 % (272 launches) (as of the card's issue time, outcomes known by then). What the score is worth.
No rug. outside buyers' net result +13.05 NEAR, short of the 0.1 NEAR loss a rug needs; the price held at 55 % of its peak (a rug needs 10 % or less).
A rug is the insiders selling into the other buyers, not any dump. Rules on the methodology page; how the forecasts did overall: accuracy. Computed 2026-11-11T11:49 UTC with config v1-fit-1.
| Launched | 2026-11-10 11:49:18 UTC · block 223911935 · live |
|---|---|
| Transaction | 5bkwK41ddbyBR…c3FTm |
| Creator | 9aa8db17b5d6b4b5e168eb27625c0efd56dc215b1208991a3382587c7c50109d explorer |
| Pool | elon-2.nearlytrade.near|wrap.near|10000 |
| Dev buy | 42.00 NEAR |
| Tax options | buy 1.00% · sell 1.00% · creator's share of the tax 0.00% |
21 out of 100 · formula ls-2 · the mean of the four parts below · how it is built
| Buyers in profit | 36 | 8 of 22 outside buyers |
|---|---|---|
| Buy pressure | 0 | buys 0.00 NEAR · sells 0.00 NEAR in the last 60 min |
| Price vs peak | 46 | the last price against the highest price since the launch |
| Activity | 0 | 0 different buyers in the last 60 min (100 from 20) |
| Last trade | 2026-11-13 04:45 UTC |
|---|---|
| Price now | 1.03x the first outside buyer's entry · 0.46x the peak |
| Outside buyers in profit | 8 of 22 · 36.4% |
| Last 15 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Last 60 min | 0 buys (0.00 NEAR) · 0 sells (0.00 NEAR) |
| Buyers in the last hour | 0 |
| Dev account | 0% · 0 of 1 hold |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 0% · 0 of 6 hold |
Facts about trades as of the time above. Not a forecast, not a grade, not part of the risk score. The same rules as in the table of holdings; the holdings are facts beside the number, not in it.
| Metric | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+30 min | T+60 min | T+24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev sold (share of what the dev acquired) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| Dev's first sell after launch | — | — | — | 36.7 min | 36.7 min |
| Buyers (other than the insiders) | 11 | 18 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Buyers spent | 301.51 NEAR | 690.91 NEAR | 1,032.53 NEAR | 1,032.53 NEAR | 1,032.53 NEAR |
| Buyers net result | +35.46 NEAR | +93.13 NEAR | +126.48 NEAR | +13.05 NEAR | -29.72 NEAR |
| Insiders (dev + wallets the dev sent tokens to) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Insiders sold (share of what they acquired) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| Insiders' net result | +19.95 NEAR | +33.83 NEAR | +41.11 NEAR | +24.86 NEAR | +24.86 NEAR |
| Highest price vs first buyer | 1.61x | 2.11x | 2.27x | 2.27x | 2.27x |
| Holders | 10 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| Top 10 holders' share | 100% | 91.6% | 89.7% | 97.7% | 100% |
Snapshots at 5, 15, 30 and 60 minutes and at 24 hours after the launch; missing columns are not due yet.
| Holder | T+5 min | T+15 min | T+60 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dev account | 3.9% · holds | 3.9% · holds | 0% · holds nothing |
| Wallets that got tokens from the dev | — | — | — |
| Early buyers that received NEAR from the dev side | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a bundle | — | — | — |
| Early buyers in a pair or a trader group | 6.3% · 2 of 2 hold | 10.6% · 4 of 6 hold | 10.6% · 4 of 6 hold |
| Other early buyers | 9.3% · 7 of 9 hold | 13.5% · 8 of 12 hold | 10.4% · 7 of 16 hold |
| All early buyers (the six rows above) | 15.6% · 11 wallets | 24.1% · 18 wallets | 21% · 22 wallets |
| Everyone else (the pool, service accounts, later buyers) | 80.5% | 72.0% | 79% |
| Top 10 holders, raw (of tokens held by wallets) | 100% | 91.6% | 97.7% |
| Top 10 holders, bundles and groups as one holder | 100% · 0 merged | 100% · 1 merged | 100% · 1 merged |
A wallet is counted once, in the first row that applies, in the order above. The early buyers are the first 30 wallets that bought within 60 minutes; wallets that bought later are in none of the rows. "Hold" means bought minus sold so far, from the trades. These are facts about trades and recorded transfers: they do not say who controls a wallet. How the table is built.
| # | Wallet | After the launch | Spent | First sell | Net result at T+60 | Links (recorded transfers and trades) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | lucky-owl-65.se….near bot_wallet | 15 s · transaction | 15.00 NEAR | 4.4 min after buying · transaction | +5.75 NEAR | none found |
| 2 | pussy.sendler-b.near bot_wallet | 15 s · transaction | 5.00 NEAR | 5.8 min after buying · transaction | +2.75 NEAR | none found |
| 3 | js1112s.near | 16 s · transaction | 20.00 NEAR | not sold | +7.60 NEAR | none found |
| 4 | 1abb937e7aebae7…3416e | 61 s · transaction | 100.00 NEAR | 3.2 min after buying · transaction | +17.87 NEAR | none found |
| 5 | 74cc5b0c55d24af…1aa85 | 93 s · transaction | 40.00 NEAR | not sold | +8.00 NEAR | none found |
| 6 | 79673929d6d0bd9…374e2 | 2.4 min · transaction | 28.00 NEAR | not sold | +3.74 NEAR | none found |
| 7 | 2695aba6ddf63b2….near | 2.8 min · transaction | 20.00 NEAR | 3.0 min after buying · transaction | +0.73 NEAR | none found |
| 8 | rekttin.near | 3.0 min · transaction | 169.32 NEAR | 5.6 min after buying · transaction | +37.61 NEAR | |
| 9 | phbo.near | 3.6 min · transaction | 5.00 NEAR | 108 s after buying · transaction | -0.55 NEAR | |
| 10 | d210db37a5443bc…22e59 | 3.8 min · transaction | 13.91 NEAR | 3.0 min after buying · transaction | +3.80 NEAR | none found |
| 11 | xiaochen2.near | 4.2 min · transaction | 23.00 NEAR | 28.6 min after buying · transaction | +2.43 NEAR | none found |
| 12 | bnearr.near | 5.8 min · transaction | 46.00 NEAR | not sold | -0.41 NEAR |
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
|
| 13 | ef642bbe6bb4bf9…b7acb | 5.9 min · transaction | 46.00 NEAR | not sold | -3.47 NEAR |
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
|
| 14 | nearingyou.near | 6.2 min · transaction | 55.00 NEAR | not sold | -10.63 NEAR |
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 7 of those launches
|
| 15 | 81425ea8846c2cb…9077f | 6.3 min · transaction | 55.00 NEAR | not sold | -13.83 NEAR |
group one of 7 wallets in which every two bought the same launches within seconds of each other; this wallet was in 14 of those launches
|
| 16 | nea1r.near | 6.4 min · transaction | 59.40 NEAR | 4.6 min after buying · transaction | -11.52 NEAR | none found |
| 17 | chaofeng.near | 7.1 min · transaction | 20.00 NEAR | not sold | -6.37 NEAR | none found |
| 18 | ddac09fe7093451…19a8f | 11.3 min · transaction | 40.00 NEAR | not sold | -6.71 NEAR | none found |
| 19 | 64af300f4f03a90…29191 | 15.9 min · transaction | 9.90 NEAR | not sold | -1.94 NEAR | none found |
| 20 | milkchan45.near | 19.0 min · transaction | 100.00 NEAR | 7.7 min after buying · transaction | -10.91 NEAR | none found |
Links are recorded transfers and trades (each with its transaction); they do not say who controls the wallets, and "none found" only means our data shows none: the funding of a wallet is loaded for the days before its first buy. How links are found.
| Time | Launchpad | Token | Risk | Outcome | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 04:12 UTC | nearly.trade | batman-4.nearlytrade.near | 5 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-27 10:45 UTC | nearly.trade | nrr-5.nearlytrade.near | 5 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-09-28 15:38 UTC | nearly.trade | ftr.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low retro | no rug | history: launch only |
| 2026-11-09 17:41 UTC | nearly.trade | mlc.nearlytrade.near | 5 Low | no rug | live |
| 2026-11-09 17:53 UTC | nearly.trade | kim-2.nearlytrade.near | 0 Low | no rug | live |
| 2026-11-10 11:51 UTC | nearly.trade | mmli-2.nearlytrade.near | 25 Low | rug | live |